Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Wed, Nov 20, 2013 - Thu, Nov 21, 2013 | D6 | Sat, Nov 23, 2013 - Sun, Nov 24, 2013 |
| D4 | Thu, Nov 21, 2013 - Fri, Nov 22, 2013 | D7 | Sun, Nov 24, 2013 - Mon, Nov 25, 2013 |
| D5 | Fri, Nov 22, 2013 - Sat, Nov 23, 2013 | D8 | Mon, Nov 25, 2013 - Tue, Nov 26, 2013 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 182114 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CST MON NOV 18 2013 VALID 201200Z - 261200Z MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OF THE SRN STREAM IS FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO A LOW THAT MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE VICINITY OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA CA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW COULD MEANDER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ACCELERATING EWD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY SEPARATE FROM A MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FOR MID/LATE IN THE WEEK OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE NRN-STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW COULD BRING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WHILE DEPICTIONS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES VARY TO SOME EXTENT AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FLANKING THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING AREAS OF ENHANCED WINDS TO PORTIONS OF CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CA WWD TO THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF CA...THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- D4/THU THROUGH D6/SAT... AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD AFFECT THE REGION FOR D4/THU THROUGH D6/SAT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NLY TO ENELY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE HILLS AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON D4/THU. SIMILAR WINDS MAY AFFECT THESE AREAS ON D5/FRI...WHILE NELY TO ENELY SFC WINDS/OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHEN FARTHER S INTO SRN CA. ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA INTO D6/SAT WHILE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE FARTHER N. ENHANCED NLY WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON D5/FRI AND D6/SAT. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS TO SUPPORT WARMING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER TROPOSPHERIC AIR ENTERS CNTRL CA BY LATE WEEK...AND ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE CLOSED LOW PRIOR TO MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE MAY RESTRICT DIURNAL HEATING/RH REDUCTIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THESE REASONS... PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 11/18/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT