Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sat, Dec 02, 2017 - Sun, Dec 03, 2017 | D6 | Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017 |
| D4 | Sun, Dec 03, 2017 - Mon, Dec 04, 2017 | D7 | Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017 |
| D5 | Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017 | D8 | Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 302026 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Zonal flow at this beginning of the period will become more amplified through the weekend as an upper level trough deepens and spreads eastward across the western U.S. Ahead of the trough, a lee low will develop over the central High Plains on Day 4/Sunday. This will result in some gusty downslope winds across the southern/central High Plains during this time. RH values are not forecast to be critically low, precluding the need for probs at this time. Should the forecast trend drier however, an area could be needed later. By early next week the large-scale trough will shift east across the Plains and persist across the eastern half of the U.S. through the remainder of the period. Strong northerly deep layer flow on the back side of the exiting western trough on Day 4/Sunday will result in gusty downslope winds across portions of the coastal southern CA ranges/foothills as early as Sunday. However, RH values are not forecast to fall into critically low ranges at this time. By Day5/Monday, an upper level ridge will build over the western states and surface high pressure will settle over the northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in a favorable offshore pressure gradient across southern CA in conjunction with warming temperatures and low RH. A prolonged period of moderate offshore flow will be possible beginning Day 5/Monday and persisting through Day 8/Thursday. Currently, Days 6-7/Tuesday-Wednesday appear to have some higher potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions, with the strongest offshore gradients and enhanced deep layer northeasterly flow across the region. As such, have introduced 40%/elevated probs for these days. Depending on trends, probs could be needed for the southern CA coastal ranges/foothills region during the entire Mon-Thu period, with some upgrades to 70% probs not out of the question. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT