Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Updated: Thu Mar 1 21:22:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 1, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 41,719 87,699 Lamar, CO...Raton, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
D4 163,400 2,469,531 Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Midland, TX...
D3Sat, Mar 03, 2018 - Sun, Mar 04, 2018 D6Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018
D4Sun, Mar 04, 2018 - Mon, Mar 05, 2018 D7Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018
D5Mon, Mar 05, 2018 - Tue, Mar 06, 2018 D8Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012120

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

   ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible - especially
   Sunday afternoon across portions of the High Plains***

   A longwave trough over the West will take on a negative tilt while
   migrating eastward toward the Plains through D5/Mon.  As this
   occurs, strong mid-level flow will overspread the Plains in response
   to the approaching wave - especially from D4/Sun into D5/Mon.  After
   D6/Tue, models generally agree that this trough will amplify again
   across the East, although they differ substantially with regard to
   timing.  Mid/upper ridging will build into areas of the
   Intermountain West late in the period.

   At the surface, substantial deepening of a low centered over western
   Kansas around D4/Sun will result in potentially higher-end fire
   weather conditions in dry areas of the High Plains.  This low will
   continue deepening and eventually occlude while migrating
   northeastward toward the Upper Midwest/Dakotas on D5/Mon. 
   Meanwhile, persistent dry flow across areas of the Southeast on the
   western periphery of a very strong Atlantic low will result in at
   least locally elevated fire weather conditions early in the extended
   period.

   ...D3/Sat through D4/Sun - Portions of the High Plains...
   A dry airmass will continue to reside across this region behind a
   lee trough/surface flow extending from western Kansas southward into
   west-central Texas.  Areas of critical fire weather conditions are
   likely on D3/Sat - especially along an axis from northeastern New
   Mexico into western Kansas where critically strong wind speeds will
   combine with very low (single digit) RH values.

   A broader area of critical fire weather conditions is expected
   D4/Sun afternoon.  Surface wind fields will strengthen dramatically
   across a broad area in response to the rapidly deepening Plains
   cyclone and 50-70 kt mid-level flow overspreading the area.  Areas
   of higher-end fire weather may occur, especially across southwest
   Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, adjacent portions of the South Plains,
   and southeastern New Mexico, where single-digit RH values will
   combine with 30+ mph surface winds.  An extremely critical fire
   weather delineation may be needed D4/Sun afternoon.

   ...D3/Sat through D4/Mon - Portions of Florida...
   Low-level drying will occur in response to 10-15 mph
   north/northwesterly flow on the western periphery of an Atlantic
   low.  Models suggest that near-critical RH values will occur in
   portions Florida on both days, especially during peak heating
   periods.  Fuels are dry in this region and ERCs are also high,
   favoring fire spread.  40% probabilities have been added to address
   this threat. 

   ...D5/Mon - Portions of the Central Plains...
   A dry airmass will overspread the region on the southwestern
   periphery of an occluding surface low in the general vicinity of the
   eastern Dakotas.  Critically low RH will exist.  Additionally, very
   strong mid-level flow will overspread the region, and vertical
   mixing will likely result in areas of critically strong RH values. 
   General uncertainty regarding position of strongest surface winds
   preclude any 70% probability areas at this time, although this
   region will be monitored for later updates.

   ..Cook.. 03/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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