Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Updated: Fri Mar 2 22:00:04 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 2, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 185,031 2,797,282 Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Midland, TX...
D3Sun, Mar 04, 2018 - Mon, Mar 05, 2018 D6Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018
D4Mon, Mar 05, 2018 - Tue, Mar 06, 2018 D7Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018
D5Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018 D8Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CST Fri Mar 02 2018

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   ...Dangerous, high-end critical fire weather conditions appear
   likely for the southern and central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday...

   A mid/upper-level trough with an associated 80-90+ kt mid-level jet
   will eject over the Plains from Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. This
   upper trough should then close off and remain over the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest through early Day 5/Tuesday. Details
   regarding the evolution of this upper low become less clear from Day
   6/Wednesday onward, although medium-range guidance does suggest
   large-scale troughing should remain in some form across the eastern
   CONUS though at least Day 7/Thursday as upper ridging builds over
   the western states.

   At the surface, a low will deepen across eastern CO into western
   KS/NE Sunday afternoon, and a dryline/lee trough will extend
   southward from this low across the southern High Plains. The surface
   pressure gradient is forecast to markedly increase across the
   southern/central High Plains through Sunday evening. This surface
   low should develop northeastward to the northern Plains/Upper
   Midwest in tandem with the upper trough/low through early Tuesday
   morning. A cold front is forecast to sweep southward across the
   southern/central Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday.

   ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Portions of the Southern/Central
   Plains...
   Widespread critical fire weather conditions will occur across the
   southern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday as strong/gusty
   downslope winds warm/dry the low levels and critically reduce
   surface RH values. A large 70%/critical delineation remains in
   effect across these regions. High-end critical conditions with
   sustained winds at or above 30 mph and RH values below 10% appear
   increasingly likely for a subset of this region. The best potential
   for high-end critical conditions will be beneath the mid-level jet
   core as these very strong winds aloft will likely be mixed to the
   surface. At this time, parts of eastern NM, west TX into the TX/OK
   Panhandles, southwestern KS, and southeastern CO have the greatest
   likelihood of experiencing these high-end critical conditions. These
   areas have also had a lack of meaningful precipitation for much of
   the winter, and ongoing drought with dry to very dry fuels should
   further enhance the potential for large fire spread. An extremely
   critical area may need to be considered for some part of this region
   in a later outlook.

   Strong/gusty post-frontal winds should occur across parts of the
   southern/central Plains on Day 4/Monday. Although temperatures will
   be cooler behind the front, a dry low-level airmass and modest
   diurnal heating should encourage RH values to fall near/below
   critical levels Monday afternoon. Have expanded the 40%/marginal
   area to encompass more of the southern Plains, and an upgrade to
   70%/critical may be needed if confidence increases in widespread
   critically reduced RH values.

   Some potential for critical fire weather conditions may persist
   across parts of the southern/central Plains into Day 5/Tuesday with
   a continued post-frontal regime. However, the placement of
   strong/gusty low-level winds differs substantially amongst
   medium-range guidance by Tuesday afternoon such that confidence is
   too low to include any probabilities at this time.

   ...Day 3/Sunday: Portions of the Southern/Central FL Peninsula...
   A dry, post-frontal airmass will persist over parts of the southern
   and central FL peninsula on Day 3/Sunday. Locally strong/gusty
   northerly winds may combine with lowered RH values to support
   elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions. A 40%/marginal area
   has been maintained across this region with only minor changes.

   ..Gleason.. 03/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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