Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Updated: Sat Mar 3 21:38:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 3, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 65,827 1,375,721 Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Emporia, KS...Garden City, KS...
D3Mon, Mar 05, 2018 - Tue, Mar 06, 2018 D6Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018
D4Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018 D7Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018
D5Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018 D8Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032136

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CST Sat Mar 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   An upper trough/low will become vertically stacked over the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3/Monday as a belt of enhanced
   mid-level flow remains over KS/OK and vicinity. This upper low
   should move slowly eastward to the vicinity of the Great Lakes by
   Day 4/Tuesday, and large-scale upper troughing is forecast to
   develop across the eastern CONUS by late next week. Meanwhile, upper
   ridging should amplify across the western states around Day
   5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday before another upper trough possibly
   moves from the eastern Pacific to the West Coast late next week.

   At the surface, a surface low should develop eastward across the
   northern Plains to the Great Lakes/OH Valley region from Day
   3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday in tandem with the upper low mentioned
   above. A cold front is forecast to sweep southward across the
   southern/central Plains in the same time frame, and strong/gusty
   post-frontal winds will likely occur across these regions.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of the Southern/Central
   Plains...
   A 70%/critical area has been introduced for Day 3/Monday across a
   large portion of KS and extending into parts of northwestern OK, the
   OK Panhandle, and southeastern CO. Even though temperatures will not
   be overly warm across this region, confidence has increased that a
   sufficient overlap of strong/gusty post-frontal west-northwesterly
   winds and RH values reduced below regional thresholds will occur
   Monday afternoon behind a surface cold front. The forecast
   meteorological conditions coupled with dry to very dry and receptive
   fuels justifies an upgrade. A 40%/marginal area encompasses a larger
   portion of the southern/central Plains, where elevated to locally
   critical fire weather conditions may occur.

   A 40%/marginal area has been introduced across parts of southern KS
   into the TX/OK Panhandles and much of OK for Day 4/Tuesday.
   Medium-range guidance is now in better agreement in the placement of
   strong/gusty post-frontal winds Tuesday afternoon. RH values may
   become reduced to near/below critical levels even with only modest
   diurnal heating and continued low-level cold air advection behind
   the cold front. A 70%/critical area may need to introduced in a
   later update if confidence in critically reduced RH values
   increases.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of Southern CA...
   High pressure is forecast to strengthen across the Great Basin in
   the large-scale subsident regime behind the upper trough described
   above from late Day 2/Sunday through Day 4/Tuesday. A modest
   strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is forecast across
   portions of southern CA in this time frame, and locally strong/gusty
   offshore winds may develop in response. However, fuels are not
   currently expected to be receptive owing to antecedent
   precipitation. Therefore, no probabilities have been included.

   ..Gleason.. 03/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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