Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Updated: Sun Mar 4 21:50:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 4, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Mar 06, 2018 - Wed, Mar 07, 2018 D6Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018
D4Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018 D7Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018
D5Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018 D8Sun, Mar 11, 2018 - Mon, Mar 12, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CST Sun Mar 04 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   A mature cyclone will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
   Lakes/OH Valley region on Day 3/Tuesday. Enhanced mid-level
   west-southwesterly winds will remain over much of the
   southern/central Plains through Tuesday evening. Large-scale upper
   troughing will develop over the eastern CONUS through Day 5/Thursday
   as an upper ridge briefly builds over the western states. A
   shortwave trough should erode this upper ridge from late Day
   5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday.

   At the surface, strong/gusty post-frontal winds will likely continue
   across parts of the southern/central Plains on Day 3/Tuesday, before
   weakening on Day 4/Wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes across
   these regions. Lee troughing may redevelop across the southern High
   Plains on Day 6/Friday and Day 7/Saturday as large-scale ascent from
   the previously mentioned eastward-moving shortwave trough
   overspreads this region.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday: Portions of the Southern/Central Plains...
   Strong/gusty northwesterly winds appear likely to redevelop behind a
   cold front across parts of KS, southeastern CO, the TX/OK
   Panhandles, and much of OK on Day 3/Tuesday. There is potential for
   critical fire weather conditions to be realized across these areas
   Tuesday afternoon as these strong winds combine with RH values
   falling near/slightly below regional critical thresholds. For now, a
   sufficient spatial and temporal overlap of the strong winds with
   critically reduced RH values appears too uncertain to include a
   70%/critical area. However, the ongoing 40%/marginal area has been
   expanded to westward/northward to account for latest model guidance,
   and an upgrade to critical may be needed in a future update.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday: Portions of Southern CA...
   High pressure will remain across the Great Basin through Day
   3/Tuesday. Strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is
   forecast across portions of southern CA from late Monday night into
   Tuesday morning, and locally strong/gusty offshore winds should
   develop in response along with some reduced RH values in favored
   higher terrain/passes. However, fuels are not currently expected to
   be overly receptive owing to antecedent precipitation. Therefore, no
   probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been
   included at this time.

   ...Day 6/Friday - Day 7/Saturday: Portions of the Southern High
   Plains and Vicinity...
   As a lee trough sharpens and the surface pressure gradient
   strengthens, strong/gusty downslope winds may develop across
   portions of the southern High Plains and vicinity on Day 6/Friday.
   Some potential for sub-15% RH vales may also exist across this area.
   Therefore, a 40%/marginal delineation has been introduced. Similar
   conditions may develop again on Day 7/Saturday across a greater
   portion of the southern High Plains, but too much uncertainty exists
   regarding the placement of a cold front and the primary corridor
   strong/gusty low-level winds to include any probabilities for now.

   ..Gleason.. 03/04/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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