Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Updated: Mon Mar 5 21:46:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 5, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Mar 07, 2018 - Thu, Mar 08, 2018 D6Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018
D4Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018 D7Sun, Mar 11, 2018 - Mon, Mar 12, 2018
D5Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018 D8Mon, Mar 12, 2018 - Tue, Mar 13, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052144

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   Upper troughing should remain over the eastern CONUS from Day
   3/Wednesday to Day 4/Thursday as an upper ridge becomes suppressed
   by a shortwave trough moving eastward over the western states. A
   progressive upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS thereafter,
   with multiple shortwave trough passages possible over the western
   states and Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to
   sharpen across the southern High Plains from Day 4/Thursday through
   at least Day 6/Saturday.

   ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 6/Saturday: Portions of the Southern High
   Plains...
   Strong/gusty low-level winds may develop in conjunction with RH
   values near critical levels on Day 4/Thursday across part of eastern
   NM as a surface lee trough develops. There is now enough agreement
   amongst medium-range model guidance in this potential to include a
   small 40%/marginal area for Day 4/Thursday. A similar scenario
   should unfold on Day 5/Friday across a greater portion of the
   southern High Plains. The 40%/marginal area for Day 5/Friday has
   been maintained with only minor modifications. Confidence is not
   high enough in a widespread overlap of strong/gusty winds and
   critically lowered RH values for higher probabilities at this time.
   Some critical fire weather potential may also exist on Day
   6/Saturday across part of the southern High Plains in advance of a
   southward-moving cold front. However, model spread in the placement
   of strong/gusty winds and the cold front remains a bit too large to
   introduce any probabilities for now.

   ..Gleason.. 03/05/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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