Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Updated: Tue Mar 6 21:45:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 6, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Mar 08, 2018 - Fri, Mar 09, 2018 D6Sun, Mar 11, 2018 - Mon, Mar 12, 2018
D4Fri, Mar 09, 2018 - Sat, Mar 10, 2018 D7Mon, Mar 12, 2018 - Tue, Mar 13, 2018
D5Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018 D8Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - Wed, Mar 14, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CST Tue Mar 06 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   The western United States ridge is expected to amplify during the
   forecast period as large-scale troughing develops across the eastern
   Pacific. East of this ridging, mean troughing will continue as a
   series of shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale flow.
   Toward the end of the period the eastern Pacific trough may begin to
   move inland, bringing with it cooler, wetter weather.

   ...Portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains...
   Persistent westerly/northwesterly midlevel flow will maintain a dry,
   continental airmass across the central United States into the
   weekend. This alone will maintain an elevated fire-weather threat
   across the region, with locally critical conditions possible in
   favored locations. Subtle perturbations within the larger-scale flow
   may yield locally critical fire-weather conditions across a larger
   area as well, particularly on Friday (Day 4) ahead of a surface cold
   front. Thus, will leave inherited 40% probabilities as is for this
   possibility. If the surface front slows down, which is hinted at in
   some guidance, elevated-to-critical fire-weather conditions may also
   be possible across some areas on Saturday (Day 5). However, no
   probabilities have been added as confidence remains too low.

   ..Marsh.. 03/06/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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