Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Updated: Thu Mar 8 21:04:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 8, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 113,906 1,554,872 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...
D3Sat, Mar 10, 2018 - Sun, Mar 11, 2018 D6Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - Wed, Mar 14, 2018
D4Sun, Mar 11, 2018 - Mon, Mar 12, 2018 D7Wed, Mar 14, 2018 - Thu, Mar 15, 2018
D5Mon, Mar 12, 2018 - Tue, Mar 13, 2018 D8Thu, Mar 15, 2018 - Fri, Mar 16, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082102

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CST Thu Mar 08 2018

   Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

   ...Days 3-4/Sat-Sun -- Central and Southern High Plains...

   Enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the central
   and southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Saturday as a shortwave
   trough tracks southeast from the northern Rockies to the central
   Plains/Mid-MS Valley. A weak lee surface low near the Red River and
   a strengthening surface high over the northern High Plains will
   result in a tight pressure gradient over the central into the
   southern High Plains. To the west of a dryline extending southward
   from the low, a very dry airmass will be in place and, in
   combination with gusty winds, elevated to critical fire weather
   conditions are expected from southwest NE into eastern CO, western
   KS, western OK, the OK/TX Panhandles, southwest TX and eastern NM.
   The eastern edge of elevated/critical fire weather conditions is a
   bit uncertain at this time and will depend on the location of the
   surface low and dryline. At this time, the highest confidence in the
   development of critical conditions is across eastern NM, portions of
   the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. North/northwest winds around
   20 mph with higher gusts and RH values of 10-15 percent are expected
   as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s. Further north, winds will
   still be gusty but RH values will be higher as temperatures only
   reach into the 50s and low 60s.

   Strong surface high pressure will build southward on Sunday and a
   tight pressure gradient will remain across the region. Temperatures
   will be much cooler than on Saturday, with highs generally remaining
   in the 50s. However, wind speeds around 15 mph with higher gusts and
   RH values in the 20 percent range will maintain at least elevated
   fire weather concerns, especially if there are any ongoing fires. 

   Fire weather potential may increase again by the end of the period 
   when a low amplitude ridge over the Plains breaks down mid-to-late
   next week.

   ...Day 7-8/Wed-Thu -- Portions of the Southeast...

   Some elevated fire weather potential may develop across parts of
   eastern SC, southern GA and FL where a dry airmass with breezy
   northwest winds will develop behind a cold front. Some rainfall is
   expected across the region in the days prior to frontal passage, so
   uncertainty is too high to introduce probs at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 03/08/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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