Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Updated: Mon Mar 12 20:56:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 12, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Mar 14, 2018 - Thu, Mar 15, 2018 D6Sat, Mar 17, 2018 - Sun, Mar 18, 2018
D4Thu, Mar 15, 2018 - Fri, Mar 16, 2018 D7Sun, Mar 18, 2018 - Mon, Mar 19, 2018
D5Fri, Mar 16, 2018 - Sat, Mar 17, 2018 D8Mon, Mar 19, 2018 - Tue, Mar 20, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122054

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   A considerably amplified mid/upper pattern will be established
   across much of North America at the beginning of the extended period
   (i.e., D3/Wed). This pattern will feature a pair of troughs and
   associated closed lows near the East and West Coasts, separated by a
   ridge extending from the Desert Southwest northward to the Northwest
   and Yukon Territories. However, in response to a series of shortwave
   impulses crossing western North America, the ridge is forecast to
   de-amplify through the upcoming weekend, favoring the organization
   of somewhat more zonal flow (and lower predictability) into early
   next week.

   ...Southeast US...
   Pockets of breezy conditions are expected across Florida on D3/Wed,
   within a post-frontal, drying air mass. Sustained wind speeds near
   10-15 mph, combined with RH values near 25-30%, will overlap areas
   of favorably dry fuels. In turn, at least elevated concerns are
   probable and the 40%/marginal designation is maintained. Some
   breeziness will persist across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas
   D3/Wed-D4/Thu as well. Nonetheless, despite a dry air mass here,
   less receptive fuels and marginal forecast wind speeds suggest the
   probability of widespread critical conditions is below 40% at this
   time. 

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   Upstream of the deep eastern US trough, the aforementioned ridge
   will translate eastward while de-amplifying on D3/Wed. As mid-level
   flow becomes increasingly perpendicular to the central Rockies, a
   lee trough will organize over the central high Plains. Consequently,
   south/southwesterly flow will increase from west Texas/New Mexico
   into Kansas. Wind speeds in excess of 20 mph are anticipated, but
   mild temperatures and modest RH reductions are forecast to limit the
   extent of the fire-weather threat. Therefore, the ongoing
   40%/marginal area for D3/Wed has been focused to the most likely
   area of elevated/locally critical concerns (i.e., the TX/OK
   Panhandles and vicinity).

   Thereafter, the large-scale flattening of flow across the country
   reduces predictability. Nonetheless, persistent west/southwesterly
   mid-level flow and little precipitation suggest pockets of at least
   elevated fire-weather potential each day through the extended
   period, and 40% areas are maintained/introduced through D8/Mon
   accordingly. As the western trough slowly builds onshore, multiple
   impulses advancing around its southern periphery will approach the
   southern/central Plains late this week into the weekend. While the
   timing/amplitude are highly uncertain, there appears to be a higher
   potential for critical concerns on at least one day during the
   D5/Fri-D7/Sun period. Subsequently, a 70%/critical area may be
   introduced in later forecast cycles, pending higher confidence in
   impulse timing/amplitude.

   ..Picca.. 03/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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