Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Updated: Wed Jun 13 22:02:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 13, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 19,606 10,090 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
D3Fri, Jun 15, 2018 - Sat, Jun 16, 2018 D6Mon, Jun 18, 2018 - Tue, Jun 19, 2018
D4Sat, Jun 16, 2018 - Sun, Jun 17, 2018 D7Tue, Jun 19, 2018 - Wed, Jun 20, 2018
D5Sun, Jun 17, 2018 - Mon, Jun 18, 2018 D8Wed, Jun 20, 2018 - Thu, Jun 21, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   An upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move
   south and become a cut-off low. Some divergence exists with regard
   to the exact evolution/timing of the cut-off low and introduces
   uncertainty even at D4/Saturday. D5/Sunday and beyond, the forecast
   becomes more complicated as the approach of the remnants of what is
   now tropical storm Bud will influence much of the southwestern
   CONUS. The track of this system has shifted east over time (see NHC
   forecasts for more details); nevertheless, mid-level moisture and
   clouds will limit critical fire weather potential over much of the
   region. Away from the influences of the tropical moisture, little
   confidence exists where overlap of critical RH/wind values will be
   owing to larger model discrepancies.

   ...Day 3 -- Central/Southern Nevada...portions of central
   Utah...southwestern/south-central Wyoming...
   A broad swath of strong surface flow will be present across the
   Great Basin into parts of the Central Rockies on D3/Friday. Strong
   mid-level flow will be present and mix down to the surface.
   Furthermore, a surface low will develop in the Great Basin and
   increase the pressure gradient. Model agreement now gives enough
   confidence to introduce a 70% area in portions of southern Nevada
   into far western Utah. Very dry fuels exist in these locations with
   little recovery probable as dry and windy conditions are expected to
   persist. Portions of west-central Nevada were considered for
   inclusion in the 70% area; however, enough model disagreement exists
   that it was not done at this time. Given the strong winds possible
   with a frontal passage, this area will be monitored for possible
   upgrade.

   ...Day 4 -- South-central Nevada...
   Model disagreement in exact evolution of the upper-level cut-off low
   lead to only a small area being included in 40% probabilities on
   D4/Saturday. A strong surface pressure gradient is expected, but the
   position of the strong overlapping mid-level flow is in question.
   Should model guidance converge on a solution, an expansion of the
   40% area will likely occur given the continued drought and dry fuels
   over parts of central/southern Nevada into western/southern Utah.

   ...Day 5 through Day 8...
   Given the uncertainties regarding the evolution/position of the
   upper-level cut-off low as well as the moisture influx from the
   remnants of tropical storm Bud, no probabilities have been
   introduced in Days 5 through 8. It is probable that a few locations
   may experience critical fire weather/dry thunderstorms within the
   Great Basin and southwestern CONUS, but more confidence is needed in
   the exact location of pertinent atmospheric features before any
   probability areas are introduced.

   ..Wendt.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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