Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Updated: Wed Jul 11 21:07:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jul 11, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Jul 13, 2018 - Sat, Jul 14, 2018 D6Mon, Jul 16, 2018 - Tue, Jul 17, 2018
D4Sat, Jul 14, 2018 - Sun, Jul 15, 2018 D7Tue, Jul 17, 2018 - Wed, Jul 18, 2018
D5Sun, Jul 15, 2018 - Mon, Jul 16, 2018 D8Wed, Jul 18, 2018 - Thu, Jul 19, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112105

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Weak flow through most of the low to mid atmosphere will likely
   preclude strong surface winds across much of the western CONUS
   through the early portion of next week. The exception will be on
   Friday in the Cascade gaps where some gusty winds are possible. The
   primary fire weather concern through the extended period will be
   fire starts due to lightning. The best chance for dry thunderstorms
   will be in northwest California, southern Oregon, and northwestern
   Nevada on Friday and Saturday.

   ...D3/Friday - Columbia Basin, Southern Oregon, Northern California,
   and Northwest Nevada...
   As the thermal trough shifts east of the Cascades on Friday, a
   strengthening cross Cascade surface pressure gradient will lead to
   gusty winds through gaps in the Cascades. The strongest winds will
   likely be in the eastern Columbia River Gorge and the southwestern
   Columbia Basin. While RH values will likely be critical for much of
   the afternoon and evening, wind speeds may not be quite strong
   enough for critical conditions. However, will keep the 40 percent
   area as conditions will be borderline enough for potential critical
   fire weather conditions. 

   Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the
   northern Sierras into southern Oregon and northwest Nevada. PWAT
   values will be between 0.7 and 0.8 inches across much of this area
   which will likely result in a combination of both wet and dry
   thunderstorms. The highest storm coverage will likely be in northern
   California where forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE in excess of 500
   J/kg in spots.

   ...Southern Oregon, Northern California, Southwest Idaho, and
   Northern Nevada...
   Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible again on Day4/Saturday in a
   similar area to Day3/Friday. The storms will likely extend further
   into northeast Nevada and far southwest Idaho on Saturday. PW values
   will remain around 0.8 inches with both wet and dry storms expected.

   ..Bentley.. 07/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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