Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Updated: Thu Oct 11 21:53:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 11, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 4,031 5,374,646 Glendale, CA...Ontario, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Rancho Cucamonga, CA...Pomona, CA...
D3Sat, Oct 13, 2018 - Sun, Oct 14, 2018 D6Tue, Oct 16, 2018 - Wed, Oct 17, 2018
D4Sun, Oct 14, 2018 - Mon, Oct 15, 2018 D7Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - Thu, Oct 18, 2018
D5Mon, Oct 15, 2018 - Tue, Oct 16, 2018 D8Thu, Oct 18, 2018 - Fri, Oct 19, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Upper-level troughing will continue over most of the CONUS through
   the outlook period bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to
   much of the CONUS. Remnants from Hurricane Sergio will help produce
   precipitation across portions of the Southwest and southern Plains
   on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday before being absorbed into an
   upper-level trough over the Mid Mississippi Valley. An upper-level
   shortwave trough will continue to traverse slowly over California
   and into the Southwest before being picked-up by the stronger
   upper-level flow on Day 4/Sunday, and a cut/closed-off upper-level
   trough may develop over the Southwest on Day 6/Tuesday - Day
   8/Thursday. Fire weather concerns will remain focused across
   portions of California through the outlook period as offshore winds
   develop.

   ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday: California...
   Winds will increase across portions of California on Day 4/Sunday
   along/ahead of a cold front moving from the Pacific Northwest into
   the Great Basin as the pressure gradient strengthens between the
   Great Basin and California. Stronger north-northeasterly (offshore)
   winds will develop amid a dry airmass possibly resulting in critical
   conditions on Day 4/Sunday across portions of central/northern
   California, especially higher elevations in the Coastal Ranges,
   areas in the Central Valley where deep boundary-layer mixing occurs,
   and the Sierra Nevada foothills. Overall, dry/breezy conditions
   should continue for most of central/northern California through the
   outlook period, which will continue to cure fuels.

   Offshore winds will likely develop on Day 4/Sunday afternoon across
   portions of southern California and continue into Day 7/Wednesday
   with the strongest offshore winds likely to occur on Day 5/Monday.
   Probabilities (40/70%) of critical conditions are included for
   portions of southern California throughout the event with the
   mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties favored for the
   strongest winds/lowest RH. Critical winds/RH may develop farther
   inland across the Desert Southwest, but questions regarding fuels
   (loading/dryness) preclude including probabilities for critical
   conditions.

   The aforementioned upper-level trough moving over California will
   produce precipitation across portions of southern California on Day
   3/Saturday with the mountains south/east of Cajon Pass favored. The
   antecedent onshore flow/precipitation complicates the forecast as
   some areas within/near 40% delineations may need to be added/removed
   in future outlooks depending on forecast/observed precipitation
   amounts. Fuels are not as critical as they were over the Summer or
   last Fall, but some areas have fuels that are receptive to
   ignition/spread especially with the expected winds/RH. Overall,
   confidence is high that an offshore wind event will occur, but the
   details regarding its severity/effects remain somewhat uncertain.

   ..Nauslar.. 10/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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