Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Updated: Fri Jan 11 21:05:03 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 11, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Jan 13, 2019 - Mon, Jan 14, 2019 D6Wed, Jan 16, 2019 - Thu, Jan 17, 2019
D4Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - Tue, Jan 15, 2019 D7Thu, Jan 17, 2019 - Fri, Jan 18, 2019
D5Tue, Jan 15, 2019 - Wed, Jan 16, 2019 D8Fri, Jan 18, 2019 - Sat, Jan 19, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112103

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   An active southern-stream pattern will continue with upper-level
   ridging remaining over much of the northern Rockies/inland Pacific
   Northwest through the outlook period. Multiple upper-level shortwave
   troughs will track over southern portions of the US as upper-level
   troughs move southeastward across the Great Lakes and into the
   Northeast during the outlook period. Cool/cold and wet weather will
   prevail across much of the CONUS and limit fire weather concerns
   during most of the outlook period.

   On Day 8/Friday, guidance has been consistent in showing dry/windy
   conditions across the southern High Plains. However, there is still
   sufficient uncertainty regarding timing/strength of the upper-level
   shortwave trough to introduce probabilities for critical fire
   weather at this time. Overall, the active southern stream will
   dampen fire weather concerns across regions that traditionally have
   the potential for large wildfires this time of year (e.g., portions
   of southern California, the Southwest, southern Plains, and the
   Southeast).

   ..Nauslar.. 01/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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