Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Updated: Mon Feb 11 21:44:02 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 11, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 41,297 492,831 Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...
D3Wed, Feb 13, 2019 - Thu, Feb 14, 2019 D6Sat, Feb 16, 2019 - Sun, Feb 17, 2019
D4Thu, Feb 14, 2019 - Fri, Feb 15, 2019 D7Sun, Feb 17, 2019 - Mon, Feb 18, 2019
D5Fri, Feb 15, 2019 - Sat, Feb 16, 2019 D8Mon, Feb 18, 2019 - Tue, Feb 19, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 112142

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

   Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

   Mostly zonal flow aloft mid-week will give way to broad upper-level
   troughing over much of the CONUS by the weekend. Strong
   mid/upper-level flow across the southern CONUS will stretch from
   coast-to-coast beginning Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday. Enhanced
   cross-mountain flow will result in downslope winds and lee troughing
   across the southern High Plains through the outlook period, but
   should be interrupted by at least one cold-frontal passage Day
   4/Thursday - Day 7/Sunday. 

   ...Day 3/Wednesday...
   Critical conditions are likely to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandles and northeast New Mexico on Day 3/Wednesday. Strong
   downslope flow and lee troughing will increase surface winds out of
   the west/southwest to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. RH values
   will drop below 15% and in some areas into the single digits across
   the southern High Plains. There is potential for extremely critical
   conditions to develop within the 70% delineation where sustained
   surface winds of 30 mph are forecast to overlap with single digit
   RH.

   ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 6/Saturday...
   There is some uncertainty regarding the strength/timing of a
   shortwave trough moving over the Intermountain West and southern
   Plains on Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday that precludes introducing
   70% probability of critical conditions on these days. However,
   confidence is increasing that critical conditions will develop on
   Day 4/Thursday, but where critical conditions will develop on the
   southern High Plains remains uncertain. Additionally, there is
   forecast uncertainty pertaining to the timing of the large
   upper-level trough ejecting out of the western CONUS on Day
   6/Saturday - Day 8/Monday. 

   At the surface, the location/strength of cold frontal passages and
   the resilience of the cold air behind them are driving the forecast
   uncertainty of critical conditions across the southern High Plains
   on Day 4/Thursday - Day 6/Saturday. Given the different upper-level
   pattern solutions among the models, the forcing driving southward
   surges of cold air is varied. Additionally, as seen last week, the
   cold air can prove more resistant to downslope flow/lee troughing
   than the models indicate.

   Overall, it appears the southern High Plains will be dry/windy Day
   3/Wednesday - Day 6/Saturday with potential for critical conditions
   to occur each afternoon. 10-hour dead fuel moisture values are
   mostly 4-10% across the southern High Plains and continued dry/windy
   conditions will only exacerbate fire weather conditions into the
   weekend.

   ..Nauslar.. 02/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT