Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Updated: Tue Aug 13 21:55:03 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 13, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Aug 15, 2019 - Fri, Aug 16, 2019 D6Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - Mon, Aug 19, 2019
D4Fri, Aug 16, 2019 - Sat, Aug 17, 2019 D7Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - Tue, Aug 20, 2019
D5Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - Sun, Aug 18, 2019 D8Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - Wed, Aug 21, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   The extended period will begin with broad, slightly cyclonic
   mid-level flow, with relatively weak embedded shortwave mid-level
   impulses traversing the northwest CONUS into the Day 4/Friday
   period. Locally dry and breezy conditions may promote marginally
   favorable conditions for some fire-spread potential. Thereafter,
   upper-level ridging will build across the western CONUS, promoting
   warmer, drier conditions to this portion of the U.S.  

   ...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
   A mid-level impulse will traverse the northern Great Basin/central
   Rockies regions while overspreading a deeply mixed boundary layer on
   Day 3/Thursday. At least localized dry, windy conditions may be
   expected (especially across terrain favoring areas) from central
   Idaho into central Wyoming, particularly in the Snake River Plain
   and Great Divide Basin. As a second, larger mid-level impulse
   traverses the western CONUS, more widespread dry and breezy surface
   conditions may be expected across most of the Great Basin, into
   portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies regions. However,
   most model guidance depicts that the aforementioned conditions may
   not exceed critical thresholds on a widespread basis, precluding
   critical probability delineations at this time.

   ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
   As large scale upper-level ridging builds into the western CONUS
   during the weekend into early next week, hot and dry conditions are
   expected to prevail across much of the Great Basin, gradually
   stretching into the northern Rockies and parts of the Pacific
   Northwest with time. Breezy conditions may accompany the drier
   airmass along the periphery of the upper-level ridge, where modest
   flow aloft may mix down via a deep boundary layer. Still, confidence
   is too low to pinpoint a more precise location or day for critical
   conditions to be realized, hence no critical probabilities have been
   added this outlook.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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