Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Updated: Tue Sep 10 20:46:03 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 10, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D6 24,295 494,336 Reno, NV...Sparks, NV...Sun Valley, NV...Fernley, NV...Fallon, NV...
D3Thu, Sep 12, 2019 - Fri, Sep 13, 2019 D6Sun, Sep 15, 2019 - Mon, Sep 16, 2019
D4Fri, Sep 13, 2019 - Sat, Sep 14, 2019 D7Mon, Sep 16, 2019 - Tue, Sep 17, 2019
D5Sat, Sep 14, 2019 - Sun, Sep 15, 2019 D8Tue, Sep 17, 2019 - Wed, Sep 18, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102042

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   ...D3/Thu through D4/Fri - Southern California...
   High pressure will build into the Great Basin Thursday morning as a
   surface trough develops along the California coast.  The offshore
   gradient associated with this surface pattern will foster gusty
   easterly/northeasterly surface winds across coastal ranges and
   terrain-favored areas in southern California.  Areas of elevated
   fire weather are expected Thursday morning, though the surface
   pressure gradient should weaken some mid-day.  The pressure gradient
   may strengthen again through early Friday morning, though the
   overall magnitude of this gradient by that time suggests a lower
   risk of elevated (locally critical) fire weather.

   ...D6/Sun through D8/Tue Sep 17 - Western U.S./Great Basin...
   Models are consistent in depicting a longwave trough to amplify
   along the West Coast beginning D6/Sun.  They then diverge with
   respect to the forward speed of this trough across the Great Basin
   and Northern Rockies, which has some impact on the subsequent
   surface pattern and associated wind fields.  On the whole,
   strengthening mid-level flow across dry areas of the Interior West
   will work in concert with vertical mixing processes during peak
   heating periods and result in widespread areas of elevated to
   critical fire weather.  The greatest confidence of critical fire
   weather conditions exists across northwestern Nevada and far
   northeastern California on D6/Sun where 70% probabilities have been
   introduced.  However, if current model trends hold these
   probabilities will need to be expanded eastward to include more of
   Nevada and western Utah.

   Again, timing differences become greater from D7/Mon onward which
   lends some uncertainty regarding specific corridors of critical fire
   weather.  Given the potential for higher-end critical atmospheric
   conditions across eastern Nevada and western Utah, 40% probabilities
   have been introduced with the expectation that higher probabilities
   will be needed in later outlook updates.  D8/Tue Sep 17 also has an
   appreciable fire-weather threat in similar areas, though model
   differences in the location of a strong surface boundary across the
   Great Basin lends even greater uncertainty, especially given the
   timeframe of interest.

   ..Cook.. 09/10/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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