Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Updated: Wed Oct 9 20:39:02 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 9, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 1,724 163,383 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
D3Fri, Oct 11, 2019 - Sat, Oct 12, 2019 D6Mon, Oct 14, 2019 - Tue, Oct 15, 2019
D4Sat, Oct 12, 2019 - Sun, Oct 13, 2019 D7Tue, Oct 15, 2019 - Wed, Oct 16, 2019
D5Sun, Oct 13, 2019 - Mon, Oct 14, 2019 D8Wed, Oct 16, 2019 - Thu, Oct 17, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092035

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   The long term period will begin with significant fire weather
   concerns continuing in southern California due to the latter stages
   of a moderate to strong Santa Ana event. Once the winds weaken from
   this period of offshore flow, fire weather concerns will be quite
   minimal across the CONUS as winds will remain light across much of
   the western CONUS where warm and dry conditions and dry fuels will
   be present.

   ...Day 3/Friday - Portions of Southern California...
   Critical conditions will likely be ongoing to begin the period,
   especially in the Ventura and Los Angeles county mountains where the
   strongest winds will likely be present. The pressure gradient will
   gradually weaken through the day on Friday, but elevated to critical
   winds are expected to persist for most of the day. In addition, a
   very dry air mass will be well entrenched by this time with
   widespread 5 to 8 percent relative humidities present across much of
   southern California. Given these very dry conditions and near
   critical or critical wind speeds expected for most of the day, 70
   percent critical probabilities are warranted. Elevated conditions
   may persist into Friday night and possibly into Saturday morning,
   but critical conditions will likely not persist beyond 12Z Saturday.

   ..Bentley.. 10/09/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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