Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Updated: Fri Nov 8 21:26:03 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Nov 10, 2019 - Mon, Nov 11, 2019 D6Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - Thu, Nov 14, 2019
D4Mon, Nov 11, 2019 - Tue, Nov 12, 2019 D7Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - Fri, Nov 15, 2019
D5Tue, Nov 12, 2019 - Wed, Nov 13, 2019 D8Fri, Nov 15, 2019 - Sat, Nov 16, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082123

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2019

   Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

   The general upper-level pattern during the extended period will
   feature a ridge across much of the western CONUS with a trough over
   the eastern two-thirds of the country. Colder air and precipitation
   will limit fire weather concerns east of the Divide. Within the
   portions of the Great Basin, parts of the Southwest, and California,
   conditions will remain relatively warm and dry.

   ...D4/Monday...Southern California...
   Weak offshore flow is expected during most of the upcoming week.
   However, the offshore gradient will be maximized early on Monday as
   a strong arctic high pressure system is expected to drop southward
   into the Great Plains. Upper-level support, while weak, will also be
   maximized with northeasterly winds on the back side of an mid-level
   cutoff low. Critical fire weather potential still appears too low to
   warrant probabilities even with areas of dry/breezy conditions
   likely to exist.

   ..Wendt.. 11/08/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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