Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Updated: Mon Dec 2 21:29:02 UTC 2019

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 2, 2019

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Dec 04, 2019 - Thu, Dec 05, 2019 D6Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - Sun, Dec 08, 2019
D4Thu, Dec 05, 2019 - Fri, Dec 06, 2019 D7Sun, Dec 08, 2019 - Mon, Dec 09, 2019
D5Fri, Dec 06, 2019 - Sat, Dec 07, 2019 D8Mon, Dec 09, 2019 - Tue, Dec 10, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022125

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2019

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS
   through the outlook period. Fuels/fire danger will remain moderated
   through the weekend with relatively low probabilities for critical
   fire weather conditions.

   On Day 4/Thursday, westerly winds of 15-30 mph are likely to develop
   across portions of the southern High Plains ahead of a cold front as
   surface cyclone strengthens. However, minimum RH values are forecast
   to remain at/above elevated thresholds (20-30%), which given current
   fuels, should preclude elevated/critical areas.

   On Day 6/Saturday - Day 7/Sunday, relatively dry/breezy conditions
   are likely to develop across portions of the southern High Plains.
   Lee troughing will begin amid downslope flow on Day 6/Saturday
   possibly resulting in elevated winds/RH across portions of eastern
   New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. On Day 7/Sunday, an
   upper-level shortwave trough embedded in a larger trough is forecast
   to move over the region with mid-level flow of 60+ knots overhead.
   Westerly surface winds will strengthen between the cold front and
   dryline as the surface cyclone intensifies and stronger flow aloft
   mixes to the surface. However, current guidance still indicates RH
   values will remain mostly above elevated thresholds.

   ..Nauslar.. 12/02/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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