Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Updated: Tue Jan 14 21:36:02 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 14, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Jan 16, 2020 - Fri, Jan 17, 2020 D6Sun, Jan 19, 2020 - Mon, Jan 20, 2020
D4Fri, Jan 17, 2020 - Sat, Jan 18, 2020 D7Mon, Jan 20, 2020 - Tue, Jan 21, 2020
D5Sat, Jan 18, 2020 - Sun, Jan 19, 2020 D8Tue, Jan 21, 2020 - Wed, Jan 22, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142132

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   Lee cyclogenesis on Friday may lead to some windy and somewhat dry
   conditions in portions of the High Plains. Otherwise, surface high
   pressure will keep conditions cool across most of the CONUS.
   Therefore, fire weather concerns will remain low beyond Friday.

   ...D4/Friday - High Plains...
   Strong mid-level winds will overspread northern New Mexico and
   southern Colorado Friday afternoon. The shortwave trough with this
   mid-level jet streak will lead to some lee cyclogenesis in eastern
   Colorado. The combination of deep mixing transporting some of this
   stronger mid-level flow to the surface and a strengthening surface
   pressure gradient will lead to strong surface winds across much of
   the southern High Plains. It appears there may be a brief window
   where surface relative humidity may drop below 25 percent, but cold
   air advection behind the cold front should limit how low RH values
   will get and should help to alleviate fire weather concerns. At this
   time, it appears any threat for critical conditions will be very
   weak and localized and therefore no probabilities will be added.

   ..Bentley.. 01/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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