Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Updated: Thu Feb 13 21:37:02 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 13, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - Sun, Feb 16, 2020 D6Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - Wed, Feb 19, 2020
D4Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - Mon, Feb 17, 2020 D7Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - Thu, Feb 20, 2020
D5Mon, Feb 17, 2020 - Tue, Feb 18, 2020 D8Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - Fri, Feb 21, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132133

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Upper-level zonal flow with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will
   develop over the CONUS Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday. Beyond Day
   4/Sunday, upper-level troughing is forecast to develop across much
   of the Intermountain West with strong zonal flow continuing over the
   eastern CONUS. 

   ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: southern High Plains...
   Lee troughing on Day 4/Sunday and surface cyclogenesis on Day
   5/Monday will lead to stronger west/southwest winds across the
   southern High Plains. A 45-65 knot mid-level westerly jet will
   result in stronger downslope flow and with some higher momentum air
   mixing to the surface during the afternoons. While critical winds/RH
   are possible on Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday ahead of the cold
   front, recent precipitation and forecast precipitation on Day
   6/Tuesday - Day 7/Wednesday will mitigate the magnitude and duration
   of the fire threat.

   ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday: California...
   Most of California will remain dry through the outlook period with
   offshore flow developing on Day 4/Sunday night.
   Dry/offshore/downslope flow is expected across portions of
   central/southern California with stronger northerly flow in the
   Central Valley on Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. The
   magnitude and duration of offshore flow are uncertain due to
   forecast uncertainty regarding the large-scale pattern over the West
   Coast.

   ..Nauslar.. 02/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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