Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Updated: Wed Mar 25 20:34:02 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 25, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 41,989 194,792 Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Portales, NM...Artesia, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
D3Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - Sat, Mar 28, 2020 D6Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - Tue, Mar 31, 2020
D4Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - Sun, Mar 29, 2020 D7Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - Wed, Apr 01, 2020
D5Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - Mon, Mar 30, 2020 D8Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - Thu, Apr 02, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252029

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   Early in the forecast period (D3/Fri through D5/Sun), a powerful
   mid/upper trough will migrate from the Desert Southwest
   east-northeastward to the Great Lakes region.  Around the base of
   this trough, very strong flow aloft (exceeding 100 knots at 500 hPa
   at times) will translate across the southern Rockies/Plains and
   eventually the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Meanwhile, a surface low
   will rapidly deepen near western Kansas D3/Fri afternoon and migrate
   east-northeastward toward southern Wisconsin by early D5/Sun.  

   Thereafter, another system will organize across the Southwest,
   though models generally diverge on its specific track and evolution.
   It appears that some degree of lee troughing/dry sector development
   will exist across New Mexico and west Texas, which should result in
   continued fire-weather concerns pending greenup in portions of the
   region.

   ...D3/Fri though D6/Mon - Southern Rockies/Plains...
   Critical fire-weather conditions remain likely across eastern New
   Mexico and vicinity on D3/Fri as a strengthening surface cyclone
   deepens over western Kansas.  Strong flow aloft and vertical
   momentum transfer processes will result in very strong surface winds
   across a broad area extending from southeastern Colorado southward
   through the Big Bend area of Texas, with gusts over 40 mph becoming
   common.  One potential concern regarding this forecast is RH values,
   however - with potential cloud cover associated with the advancing
   system resulting in hindered insolation and potentially >15% RH
   during peak heating.  70%/critical probabilities have been trimmed
   on the southeastern side of the inherited envelope to account for
   this potential, though 40% probabilities remain intact area-wide.

   As the surface low and mid-level disturbance depart from the region
   on D4/Sat, models continue to depict a dry airmass residing across
   the region through the end of the forecast period (D8/Wed April 1). 
   A weak surface pressure gradient will exist across the region during
   those days, and though return flow should become established D5/Sun
   afternoon, this flow should be well displaced from more robust
   boundary layer moisture located over south/southeast Texas. 
   Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will exist
   across portions of the region each afternoon (especially across
   eastern New Mexico), with increased uncertainty in the overall
   synoptic pattern precluding probabilities beyond D6/Mon afternoon.

   ..Cook.. 03/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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