Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Updated: Thu Mar 26 21:01:03 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Mar 26, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 20,699 450,680 Lubbock, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Levelland, TX...Portales, NM...
D5 34,082 909,085 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...Hobbs, NM...
D3Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - Sun, Mar 29, 2020 D6Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - Wed, Apr 01, 2020
D4Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - Mon, Mar 30, 2020 D7Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - Thu, Apr 02, 2020
D5Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - Tue, Mar 31, 2020 D8Thu, Apr 02, 2020 - Fri, Apr 03, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262057

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   Fire-weather concerns will remain concentrated across portions of
   the southern Rockies and Plains throughout the forecast period.  An
   initial wave centered across the central Plains on D3/Sat will eject
   east-northeast toward the western Great Lakes through early D4/Sun,
   with a belt of very fast flow aloft along its southern periphery. 
   Upstream, another mid-level system will take shape across the
   Southwest and amplify while migrating into the southern Plains
   around D5/Mon.  This system will reach the southern Appalachians
   around D7/Wed.

   At the surface, a departing system over the Plains should result in
   a slackening surface pressure gradient across dry areas of New
   Mexico on D3/Sat, though lingering flow should result in areas of
   elevated to critical fire-weather.  A lee trough will develop D4/Sun
   in advance of the approaching mid-level system over the Four
   Corners.  Thereafter, cyclogenesis over Oklahoma/Texas will once
   again increase surface flow and drying across New Mexico and west
   Texas on D5/Mon.  

   ...D3/Sat through D5/Mon - Southern Plains and adjacent Rockies...
   Although surface winds will lessen substantially in several areas
   with the departing surface low over Kansas initially, models remain
   consistent in depicting a dry airmass across the region with enough
   remaining surface flow to result in elevated to critical
   fire-weather.  On D3/Sat, areas of 20 mph west-northwesterly surface
   flow will extend from east-central New Mexico into west Texas amidst
   <15% RH values.  A 70% delineation has been added for this scenario.
    
   Lighter flow should exist D4/Sun as a weak low organizes near
   central New Mexico.  A continued dry airmass will exist, however,
   which should promote mostly elevated fire-weather conditions.

   On D5/Mon, a strengthening surface cyclone should promote windier
   surface conditions again across the region.  Widespread areas of
   20-30 mph westerly flow will develop from central New Mexico into
   west-central Texas that afternoon, with widespread areas of sub-10%
   RH values.  70% critical probabilities have been included to address
   this scenario.

   ..Cook.. 03/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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