Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 22, 2020

Updated: Fri May 22 22:03:03 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 22, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, May 24, 2020 - Mon, May 25, 2020 D6Wed, May 27, 2020 - Thu, May 28, 2020
D4Mon, May 25, 2020 - Tue, May 26, 2020 D7Thu, May 28, 2020 - Fri, May 29, 2020
D5Tue, May 26, 2020 - Wed, May 27, 2020 D8Fri, May 29, 2020 - Sat, May 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   An upper-level trough is expected to shift eastward and weaken
   before settling across the Divide and into the Plains at the start
   of the period. By D5/Tuesday, this upper-level trough is forecast to
   cutoff within the Red River vicinity and gradually weaken by the
   weekend. Upper-level ridging will develop and bookend the cutoff low
   with a broader upper-level ridge currently forecast to develop
   across the central CONUS as the cutoff low dissipates. Within this
   pattern, dry weather is expected across the Southwest as well as
   parts of New England. The central/southern Plains as well as the
   Southeast/Mid-Atlantic will see diurnally-driven precipitation on
   most days. The strongest flow aloft will reside along the northern
   tier of CONUS, away from areas that will remain dry. Fire weather
   concerns will generally be minimal, particularly during the
   middle/latter portions of the period.

   ...D3/Sunday...Eastern Arizona...New Mexico...
   The weakening shortwave trough will move over the region Sunday.
   West of the lee trough/dryline, elevated to locally critical
   conditions appear probable across eastern Arizona into much of New
   Mexico. By early evening, a cold front will move into northern New
   Mexico which, depending on observed progression, may impact the
   duration fire weather concerns along the northern edge of the
   highlighted area. Very low RH of 7-15% is possible with winds likely
   in the 15-20 mph range. Forecast soundings and available CAM
   guidance suggest small potential for isolated dry thunderstorms
   within the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains. Confidence is too low for
   highlights, however.

   ...D4/Monday...Northern New England...
   A weak mid-level wave will move across the region on Monday.
   Forecast soundings indicate a dry low-level airmass will be in
   place. Though mid/high-level clouds may reduce boundary-layer mixing
   efficiency, surface winds may approach marginally elevated levels
   (near 15 mph) during the morning/afternoon. RH is forecast to be
   25-35%.

   ..Wendt.. 05/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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