Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Updated: Mon Jun 29 20:09:03 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jun 29, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 14,135 7,922 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
D3Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - Thu, Jul 02, 2020 D6Sat, Jul 04, 2020 - Sun, Jul 05, 2020
D4Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - Fri, Jul 03, 2020 D7Sun, Jul 05, 2020 - Mon, Jul 06, 2020
D5Fri, Jul 03, 2020 - Sat, Jul 04, 2020 D8Mon, Jul 06, 2020 - Tue, Jul 07, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 292005

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   Persistent western U.S. troughing in the mid-levels will weaken
   slightly through the extended forecast period as a ridge builds over
   the southern Rockies around Independence Day.  This will initially
   result in a few areas of elevated to locally critical fire-weather
   in the western Great Basin through D4/Thu evening before surface
   flow weakens considerably.  A few thunderstorms are likely from
   D5/Fri onward across higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado, but
   dry lightning is in doubt at this timeframe given the slow-moving
   nature of the storms and propensity for wetting cores.

   ...D3/Wed through D4/Thu - western Great Basin into portions of
   Wyoming...
   Southwesterly mid-level flow will mix to the surface during peak
   heating periods each day across the region.  Seasonably low RH
   values will also be in place across the region, with several areas
   falling below 15% through the afternoon.  With dry fuels in the
   region, elevated fire-weather is likely.  The greatest chances of
   critical fire-weather developing is in southeastern Nevada on D3/Wed
   afternoon where many models develop 20+ mph surface flow and <15% RH
   values amidst dry fuels.

   A few thunderstorms may also develop across higher terrain of
   central Arizona on D4/Thu afternoon.  A few dry lightning strikes
   are expected given dry fuels and very dry sub-cloud layers in that
   region.  Northeastward movement/propagation will also help to keep
   wetting precipitation limited in most areas.

   ..Cook.. 06/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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