Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Updated: Sat Aug 1 21:50:02 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Aug 1, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Aug 03, 2020 - Tue, Aug 04, 2020 D6Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - Fri, Aug 07, 2020
D4Tue, Aug 04, 2020 - Wed, Aug 05, 2020 D7Fri, Aug 07, 2020 - Sat, Aug 08, 2020
D5Wed, Aug 05, 2020 - Thu, Aug 06, 2020 D8Sat, Aug 08, 2020 - Sun, Aug 09, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012146

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

   Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge over the Southwest is
   expected during the extended period. An initial shortwave trough
   moving through the Pacific Northwest will be followed by the
   establishment of a long-wave troughing along the West Coast as
   ridging builds into the central CONUS. This will favor shortwave
   impulses to propagate across the West, bringing rain chances along
   and east of the Rockies and windy conditions to portions of the
   interior West. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will largely
   continue across the southern and eastern Four Corners region,
   mitigating most fire weather concerns for this area. 

   ...D3/Mon - Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies...
   An initial shortwave trough forecast to move across the Pacific
   Northwest will be accompanied by a dry surface cold front that
   should move across eastern WA/OR and into ID/western WY on
   D3/Monday. As this occurs, pockets of terrain-enhanced winds,
   coupled with the antecedent hot and dry conditions, may support
   elevated fire weather conditions where fuels are favorable. The
   strongest signals in guidance were noted across the Snake River
   Plain of southern ID and Wyoming Basin in southwest WY. But overall
   model consensus on this potential is low and suggests that transient
   elevated conditions are the most likely scenario. 

   ...D5/Wed to D7/Fri - Western Great Basin...
   The deepening of the upper-level trough along the West Coast will
   promote surface pressure falls across the interior West during the
   D5/Wed to D7/Fri time frame. In response, low-level winds are
   expected to increase across the western Great Basin region. Deep
   boundary layer mixing will aid in downward momentum transfer of
   20-30 knot flow between 850-700 mb. Although temperatures are
   expected to moderate through the upcoming week across this region,
   critical RH values remain likely and fuels should remain receptive
   given little to no precipitation and poor moisture recovery. While
   confidence in stronger winds has increased the probability for
   elevated to critical fire weather conditions, forecast refinements
   are still expected heading into next week. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Long range guidance suggests the potential for dry thunderstorms
   during the D5/Wed to late D6/Thur period across eastern ID and
   southwest MT. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the
   potential for a favorable overlap of 0.4-0.6 inch PWAT values with
   sufficient instability for convection ahead of an approaching
   shortwave trough. However, confidence in the spatial extent of this
   threat is low, and questions regarding fuel readiness by mid-week
   introduce additional uncertainty. As such, no probabilities are
   introduced for this outlook.

   ..Moore.. 08/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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