Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Updated: Tue Sep 15 21:14:03 UTC 2020

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Sep 15, 2020

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Sep 17, 2020 - Fri, Sep 18, 2020 D6Sun, Sep 20, 2020 - Mon, Sep 21, 2020
D4Fri, Sep 18, 2020 - Sat, Sep 19, 2020 D7Mon, Sep 21, 2020 - Tue, Sep 22, 2020
D5Sat, Sep 19, 2020 - Sun, Sep 20, 2020 D8Tue, Sep 22, 2020 - Wed, Sep 23, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152110

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0410 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   The primary feature impacting fire weather concerns through the
   period will be an upper-level trough which approaches the
   California/Oregon coast on Thursday and traverses the Northwest on
   Friday and Saturday. This feature will bring dry and breezy
   conditions to much of the Great Basin and vicinity. In addition,
   this will likely bring some much needed wetting rainfall to portions
   of the Northwest and possibly northern California, especially west
   of the Cascades in Oregon.

   Mid-level flow should increase to 35 to 40 kts across northern
   California and western Oregon on Thursday. At the surface,
   temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90s
   with a deeply mixed boundary layer. This should allow momentum
   transfer of this stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with
   increasing winds in a very dry air mass. In addition to vertical
   mixing, a surface pressure gradient is expected to strengthen as a
   surface low develops in eastern Oregon/Washington. This will also
   aid in stronger winds ahead of a cold front which will move across
   the Great Basin from northwest to southeast. The threat for critical
   fire weather conditions will shift southeastward each day as the
   cold front/stronger mid-level flow moves eastward.

   While most of the dry and breezy conditions are expected ahead of
   the front, some downslope flow is possible in the lee of the Sierra
   in northwest Nevada on D4/Friday as the mid-level trough axis
   crosses the Mountains. This may lead to some critical fire weather
   conditions during the afternoon and early evening.

   ..Bentley.. 09/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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