Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - Sat, Jan 16, 2021 | D6 | Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - Tue, Jan 19, 2021 |
| D4 | Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - Sun, Jan 17, 2021 | D7 | Tue, Jan 19, 2021 - Wed, Jan 20, 2021 |
| D5 | Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - Mon, Jan 18, 2021 | D8 | Wed, Jan 20, 2021 - Thu, Jan 21, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 131958 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire-weather concerns are expected to be concentrated across the southwestern U.S. (coastal ranges of southern California in particular) throughout the extended forecast period. A longwave trough initially centered over the central/eastern U.S. will shift eastward toward the western Atlantic, though reinforcing shortwaves will migrate southeastward across the Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley around D4/Sat and again across the northern/central Rockies on D6/Mon. The aforementioned pattern will maintain areas of high pressure across the northwestern U.S. and western Great Basin, with periodic strengthening of this high at times through the week. The high will contribute to at least a couple of moderate to occasionally strong offshore wind events across southern California and southern New Mexico and vicinity while maintaining a very dry airmass in those areas, contributing to elevated to critical fire weather. ...Southern California... The presence of persistent high pressure and weak troughing along the California coast will contribute to consistent offshore flow throughout the forecast period (especially in terrain-favored areas), resulting in critically low RH values and poor overnight recoveries most of the extended forecast period. While periodic offshore flow is expected to develop throughout the forecast period (especially in terrain-favored areas), models signal potential for stronger wind events to occur (in tandem with strengthening Great Basin high pressure) on D4/Sat and especially on D6/Mon. The offshore wind event on D6/Mon is of particular concern, and widespread critical fire weather is possible in that time frame. Early indications are that the wind event may persist into the D7/Tue timeframe and probability upgrades are possible in later outlooks if model guidance continues the concerning trends. ...Southeastern Arizona into far west Texas... The periodic strengthening of high pressure across the Great Basin/central Rockies will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across these areas on D4/Sat and D6/Mon. This will enhance westerly surface flow over critical thresholds along with borderline critical RH values. Where fuels are dry, periods of elevated to locally critical fire weather are expected. ...Western Oklahoma and northwest Texas... Northwesterly post-frontal flow is depicted by models to be particularly dry by mid-afternoon D3/Fri, with low dewpoints supporting areas of 10-20% RH values. Broad portions of the region have experienced rain and/or snow recently, which has limited fuel dryness. Nevertheless, an elevated threat of fire spread may exist in areas where finer fuels can cure amidst consecutive days of very dry surface conditions. A 40% area has been added to address this threat. ..Cook.. 01/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT