Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Updated: Wed Jan 13 20:02:03 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2021

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 3,488 3,963,498 Glendale, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Pomona, CA...Pasadena, CA...Palmdale, CA...
D6 9,244 6,567,044 Riverside, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...
D3Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - Sat, Jan 16, 2021 D6Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - Tue, Jan 19, 2021
D4Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - Sun, Jan 17, 2021 D7Tue, Jan 19, 2021 - Wed, Jan 20, 2021
D5Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - Mon, Jan 18, 2021 D8Wed, Jan 20, 2021 - Thu, Jan 21, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 131958

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Fire-weather concerns are expected to be concentrated across the
   southwestern U.S. (coastal ranges of southern California in
   particular) throughout the extended forecast period.  A longwave
   trough initially centered over the central/eastern U.S. will shift
   eastward toward the western Atlantic, though reinforcing shortwaves
   will migrate southeastward across the Upper Midwest/Mississippi
   Valley around D4/Sat and again across the northern/central Rockies
   on D6/Mon.  The aforementioned pattern will maintain areas of high
   pressure across the northwestern U.S. and western Great Basin, with
   periodic strengthening of this high at times through the week.  The
   high will contribute to at least a couple of moderate to
   occasionally strong offshore wind events across southern California
   and southern New Mexico and vicinity while maintaining a very dry
   airmass in those areas, contributing to elevated to critical fire
   weather.

   ...Southern California...
   The presence of persistent high pressure and weak troughing along
   the California coast will contribute to consistent offshore flow
   throughout the forecast period (especially in terrain-favored
   areas), resulting in critically low RH values and poor overnight
   recoveries most of the extended forecast period.  While periodic
   offshore flow is expected to develop throughout the forecast period
   (especially in terrain-favored areas), models signal potential for
   stronger wind events to occur (in tandem with strengthening Great
   Basin high pressure) on D4/Sat and especially on D6/Mon.  The
   offshore wind event on D6/Mon is of particular concern, and
   widespread critical fire weather is possible in that time frame. 
   Early indications are that the wind event may persist into the
   D7/Tue timeframe and probability upgrades are possible in later
   outlooks if model guidance continues the concerning trends.

   ...Southeastern Arizona into far west Texas...
   The periodic strengthening of high pressure across the Great
   Basin/central Rockies will result in a tightening surface pressure
   gradient across these areas on D4/Sat and D6/Mon.  This will enhance
   westerly surface flow over critical thresholds along with borderline
   critical RH values.  Where fuels are dry, periods of elevated to
   locally critical fire weather are expected.

   ...Western Oklahoma and northwest Texas...
   Northwesterly post-frontal flow is depicted by models to be
   particularly dry by mid-afternoon D3/Fri, with low dewpoints
   supporting areas of 10-20% RH values.  Broad portions of the region
   have experienced rain and/or snow recently, which has limited fuel
   dryness.  Nevertheless, an elevated threat of fire spread may exist
   in areas where finer fuels can cure amidst consecutive days of very
   dry surface conditions.  A 40% area has been added to address this
   threat.

   ..Cook.. 01/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT