Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Updated: Mon Feb 22 21:34:03 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Feb 22, 2021

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Feb 24, 2021 - Thu, Feb 25, 2021 D6Sat, Feb 27, 2021 - Sun, Feb 28, 2021
D4Thu, Feb 25, 2021 - Fri, Feb 26, 2021 D7Sun, Feb 28, 2021 - Mon, Mar 01, 2021
D5Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - Sat, Feb 27, 2021 D8Mon, Mar 01, 2021 - Tue, Mar 02, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222130

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 021200Z

   Western US ridging will quickly erode at the start of the extended
   forecast period as an active and progressive mid-level flow regime
   develops. Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen across the
   southern US while a low amplitude shortwave ridge builds across the
   western Atlantic. Warm and dry conditions are expected in the
   Southwest and the southern Plains increasing the potential for
   locally elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuels remain
   unfavorable for fire spread casting considerable uncertainty on the
   nature of any fire weather threat. 

   ...Southwest and Southern Plains...
   The first in a series of potent shortwave troughs will eject
   eastward across the southern Plains late D3/Wed into early D4/Thr.
   Increasing height falls will develop a lee low across eastern New
   Mexico supporting enhanced southwesterly low-level winds across the
   Southwest. This pattern will continue into the weekend ahead of a
   second trough D6/Sat. The dry southwesterly flow will support
   surface humidities in the 10-20% range from Arizona to west Texas.
   The dry nature of the airmass and the enhanced boundary-layer winds
   should support locally elevated fire weather conditions through the
   weekend, before a cold frontal passage D8/Mon. However, Fuel ERCs
   remain well below average due to recent precipitation. Some drying
   is expected over the next several days but, considerable uncertainty
   exists in the quality of available fuels ahead of the dry and windy
   conditions. As such, no highlights will be added. 

   ...Southern California...
   Periodic offshore flow is expected across the southern coast as
   surface high pressure becomes solidified across the western Great
   Basin. Dry downlsope flow will result in occasional locally elevated
   fire weather conditions across the coastal ranges. The brief nature
   of favorable winds/humidity overlap and below average fuel readiness
   should limit the threat.

   ..Lyons.. 02/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT