Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Updated: Wed Apr 7 21:53:02 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 7, 2021

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Apr 09, 2021 - Sat, Apr 10, 2021 D6Mon, Apr 12, 2021 - Tue, Apr 13, 2021
D4Sat, Apr 10, 2021 - Sun, Apr 11, 2021 D7Tue, Apr 13, 2021 - Wed, Apr 14, 2021
D5Sun, Apr 11, 2021 - Mon, Apr 12, 2021 D8Wed, Apr 14, 2021 - Thu, Apr 15, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   The fire weather potential for this weekend and into the middle of
   next week will generally be driven by the progression of upper-level
   shortwave troughs propagating into the central CONUS within a mean
   northwesterly flow regime. This pattern is not particularly
   favorable for widespread, robust fire weather threats, but given dry
   fuels and ongoing drought across the Southwest and parts of the
   Plains, regional fire weather concerns will likely present
   themselves. 

   ...D3/Friday to D5/Sunday - Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to propagate from the
   northern Rockies into the central/southern Plains through D3/Friday.
   Surface pressure falls are expected across TX/OK as a low begins to
   consolidate, which will augment pressure-gradient winds across the
   southern High Plains. West/northwesterly downslope flow emanating
   from the southern Rockies will overspread a region with dry fuels
   and support widespread elevated, to periodically critical, fire
   weather conditions. 

   Building surface high pressure behind a cold front will limit the
   fire weather potential across the southern High Plains for
   D4/Saturday, but modest pressure falls across the Four Corners
   region may support a region of enhanced low-level flow over west
   NM/east AZ. Critical wind/RH combinations are possible, but elevated
   conditions appear more likely. A second wave translating over the
   central Rockies on D5/Sunday may strengthen a lee cyclone enough to
   support widespread strong winds across the Southwest and southern
   High Plains. However, the southward progression of a cold front
   through the day may limit this potential and yields low confidence
   in any one solution.

   ...D3/Friday to D5/Sunday - Northern and Central High Plains...
   A cold front is expected to surge southward along the High Plains on
   D3/Friday. Breezy post-frontal conditions are expected with winds
   between 15-25 mph. More aggressive solutions hint at RH reductions
   down to 20-30% from the western Dakotas southward into eastern CO,
   but notable spread in guidance and low ensemble probabilities of
   meeting RH criteria introduces uncertainty into the fire weather
   potential. 

   Long-range deterministic guidance is in better agreement regarding
   the potential for low RH and strong winds behind a second cold front
   that should be moving across MT on D4/Saturday. Given very dry
   conditions across eastern MT and the Dakotas, a fire weather threat
   is anticipated, though the exact coverage is somewhat uncertain and
   rain chances in the prior 48 hours may mitigate fine fuel readiness
   to some degree. This front will continue southward into the central
   High Plains on D5/Sunday where breezy/dry post-frontal conditions
   may again present a fire weather concern for portions of CO, NE, and
   KS.

   ..Moore.. 04/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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