Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 3, 2021

Updated: Mon May 3 21:10:03 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 3, 2021

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, May 05, 2021 - Thu, May 06, 2021 D6Sat, May 08, 2021 - Sun, May 09, 2021
D4Thu, May 06, 2021 - Fri, May 07, 2021 D7Sun, May 09, 2021 - Mon, May 10, 2021
D5Fri, May 07, 2021 - Sat, May 08, 2021 D8Mon, May 10, 2021 - Tue, May 11, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032105

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   An upper-level ridge will develop along the West Coast by midweek.
   This feature will slowly move east, allowing fuels to cure across
   portions of the West/Southwest through the week. The next trough
   will impact the Northwest by Thursday/Friday. The evolution of this
   feature is still somewhat uncertain, but the general pattern is
   forecast to be a broad trough in the West that will eventually sag
   southward into the Great Basin and Southwest. Potentially critical
   fire weather will accompany this trough and its associated Pacific
   front as it moves to the south and east.

   ...Northern California...
   Trends in model guidance have shown an increase in the favorable
   overlap of northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure in the
   Northwest as the trough moves inland. With subtle shifts in the
   mid-level jet leading to changes in the degree of risk, confidence
   is only 40%. However, the surface pattern remains favorable for fire
   weather concerns as is relatively consistent in recent model runs. A
   similar pattern is seen in some guidance for Saturday, but the
   mid-level jet position is even less certain. Fuels are quite dry for
   this time of year and no precipitation is expected through the week.

   ...Southwest...
   Mid-level flow will be on the increase during the latter half of the
   week. At least initially, the stronger flow will be farther north as
   will the deeper lee troughing. Areas of elevated fire weather are
   probable as early as Thursday into Friday. The more substantial
   winds are forecast for Saturday and Sunday as guidance shows the
   trough broadening  and shifting south across the West with strong
   westerly/southwesterly flow across the region. This will mean
   stronger lee troughing across the southern High Plains as well.
   Furthermore, guidance has been consistent with mid-level moisture
   reaching westward, possibly west of the Divide. Potential exists for
   these dry/windy conditions to follow lighting over dry fuels. The
   overall pattern supports 40% highlights Saturday and Sunday. With
   areas east of the Divide seeing precipitation today as well as on
   Friday, those areas have been left out of highlights.

   ...Great Basin...
   As the trough moves into the Northwest, there likely will be
   increased dry and windy conditions over parts of the western and
   central Basin. These conditions will then extend farther east into
   the weekend. What would otherwise be a critical fire weather pattern
   will most likely be mitigated by marginal fuels. A few areas of the
   southern Basin could see slightly higher concern given the drier
   fuels in that location. Fuel uncertainty and limited spatial extent
   keep confidence too low for highlights.

   ..Wendt.. 05/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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