Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 15, 2021

Updated: Fri Oct 15 20:46:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152042

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   Upper-level ridging currently residing over the West Coast is
   forecast to shift east by the late weekend and give way to a
   somewhat more progressive flow pattern through next week. The
   approach of an upper wave, currently noted in water-vapor imagery
   over the northern Pacific, into the western CONUS will usher in
   windy conditions across much of the Great Basin, Southwest, and high
   Plains through early next week. While strengthening winds seem
   probable, any fire weather concerns will be conditional on
   sufficiently dry fuels.

   ...D3/Sunday to D4/Monday - Great Basin and Southwest...
   Recent medium and long-range guidance have shown good agreement in
   the evolution of the upper wave as it moves ashore late Sunday into
   Monday across the West Coast. An associated surface low is forecast
   to deepen to slightly below seasonal norms, which should support
   strengthening surface winds through much of the western Great Basin.
   Analog and ensemble guidance support this idea and suggests critical
   wind speeds above 20 mph are possible - especially across western NV
   under the axis of stronger mid-level flow. As the low and attendant
   surface trough shift east into D4/Monday, winds will likely increase
   through much of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. Dry
   conditions already in place across the southwestern CONUS will
   persist into early next week. Despite the increasing winds and
   reduced RH, fuels across both regions are only marginally receptive
   outside of a few drier locations. Risk highlights may be needed in
   future outlooks, but will be conditional on deteriorating fuel
   status. 

   ...D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday - High Plains...
   A lee trough is expected to deepen along the high Plains in response
   to the approaching wave D4/Monday. The resulting mass response will
   strengthen southerly winds from eastern NM into the central High
   Plains. Sustained winds may reach critical thresholds, but the
   coverage and duration of such winds remains uncertain. A slight
   downslope component off the central/southern Rockies will aid in RH
   reductions near or below 25%, though as with locations further west,
   fuel statuses are currently marginal after recent rainfall. Warming
   temperatures over the next few days may help sufficiently cure fine
   fuels to support a fire weather concern by D4/Monday afternoon. A
   cold frontal passage through the central High Plains on D5/Tuesday
   may support strong post-frontal winds. However, cool temperatures
   behind the front and low-end rain chances introduce uncertainty into
   the fire weather threat.

   ..Moore.. 10/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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