Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 16, 2021

Updated: Sat Oct 16 20:34:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162030

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   Afternoon water-vapor imagery shows the continued, but gradual,
   eastward progression of an upper-level ridge from the West Coast
   into the inter-mountain West. This process will be expedited over
   the coming 24-48 hours as an approaching trough deepens and
   translates east through early next week. The passage of this wave
   will induce strengthening winds at the surface, resulting in
   elevated to critical wind/RH combinations during the Monday to
   Tuesday period. However, most fire weather concerns will be
   conditional on fuel status.

   ...D3/Monday - Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
   Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase through the day as the
   surface low deepens and translates across the northern Great
   Basin/northern Rockies. Sustained winds near 20 mph are likely based
   on ensemble probabilities and past analogs, and more aggressive
   solutions show potential for sustained winds near 30 mph. However,
   ensemble guidance shows somewhat modest probability for widespread
   RH reductions below 20%. Furthermore, fuels across the region are
   not critically dry with ERC values well below seasonal averages,
   which should preclude a robust fire weather threat.  

   ...D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday - Southern and Central High Plains...
   A deepening lee trough along the northern to central High Plains on
   D4/Monday will help strengthen south to southwesterly winds.
   Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests that sustained 20+ mph winds
   are possible, but will most likely remain in the 15-20 mph range. A
   dry air mass already in place (RH values currently in the 20-30%
   range) will be bolstered by a downslope component off the central
   and southern Rockies. RH values in the 15-25% range seem probable
   Monday afternoon. Similar wind/RH conditions are expected again on
   D5/Tuesday ahead of, and perhaps immediately behind, a
   southward-moving cold front. Fuels status over the areas with the
   highest potential for elevated (and perhaps briefly critical)
   conditions remains uncertain due to recent rainfall. Latest fuel
   guidance suggests some drying has occurred over the past 24 hours,
   but it remains to be seen if drying over the next 48-72 hours will
   be sufficient for a fire weather concern.

   ..Moore.. 10/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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