Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Wed, Oct 20, 2021 - Thu, Oct 21, 2021 | D6 | Sat, Oct 23, 2021 - Sun, Oct 24, 2021 |
| D4 | Thu, Oct 21, 2021 - Fri, Oct 22, 2021 | D7 | Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - Mon, Oct 25, 2021 |
| D5 | Fri, Oct 22, 2021 - Sat, Oct 23, 2021 | D8 | Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - Tue, Oct 26, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 182008 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z The probability for robust and/or widespread fire weather concerns appears low for much of the extended period. Upper-level ridging is expected to build over the western CONUS for the later half of the work week and into the weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows some uncertainty regarding the amplitude of this feature, which will influence the fire weather threat for the weekend and into early next week. More progressive solutions hint at the potential for upper-level troughing over the Four Corners with associated strong winds and reduced RH across the southern High Plains during the D6/Sat to D8/Mon time frame. However, this seems to be an outlier solution compared to ensemble means, which portray more persistent ridging aloft and weaker flow at the surface. Nonetheless, there is good model consensus in persistent dry conditions for the Southwest and southern High Plains through early next week, which may result in curing fuels and an increased susceptibility to dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 10/18/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT