Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Thu, Oct 21, 2021 - Fri, Oct 22, 2021 | D6 | Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - Mon, Oct 25, 2021 |
| D4 | Fri, Oct 22, 2021 - Sat, Oct 23, 2021 | D7 | Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - Tue, Oct 26, 2021 |
| D5 | Sat, Oct 23, 2021 - Sun, Oct 24, 2021 | D8 | Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - Wed, Oct 27, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 192052 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A combination of rainfall along the West Coast and weak surface flow under a building upper-level ridge will limit the fire weather potential through the end of the work week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest a series of upper-level troughs will begin to propagate into the western CONUS after D5/Saturday, which will likely result in one or more deepening surface lows across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains during the D5/Saturday to D8/Tuesday time frame. Some forecast details remain uncertain, namely the persistence and amplitude of the upper-level ridge over the weekend and the placement/timing of any attendant surface features. However, there is a signal for unseasonably warm temperatures across the southern Plains during this period, and most solutions maintain dry conditions across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. This suggests curing of fine fuels is likely through early next week, which may result in increasing fire weather potential. More aggressive solutions that feature a more progressive upper-level pattern and stronger surface features hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of NM, southeast CO, and west TX. While confidence in this potential remains too low for the time being, risk probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance trends towards the windier solutions. ..Moore.. 10/19/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT