Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Fri, Oct 22, 2021 - Sat, Oct 23, 2021 | D6 | Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - Tue, Oct 26, 2021 |
| D4 | Sat, Oct 23, 2021 - Sun, Oct 24, 2021 | D7 | Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - Wed, Oct 27, 2021 |
| D5 | Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - Mon, Oct 25, 2021 | D8 | Wed, Oct 27, 2021 - Thu, Oct 28, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 202031 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather potential will likely increase late this week through early next week as a more active upper-level pattern becomes established. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict a series of upper waves progressing across the western and central CONUS that will likely result in dry/windy conditions at the surface for parts of the Great Basin and southern High Plains. ...D3/Friday - Southern Great Basin... Most guidance is in good agreement regarding the passage of a shortwave trough across CA into the Great Basin during the day Friday. Surface pressure falls ahead of this wave combined with increasing flow over the Sierra will likely support dry, windy conditions in the lee of the terrain and across the southern Great Basin. While ensemble solutions suggest elevated, to perhaps locally critical, wind/RH combinations are possible, fuels across most of the region are not receptive and may not sufficiently cure by Friday afternoon. ...D4/Saturday through D7/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Parts of the southern High Plains may see one or more days of elevated fire weather conditions during the Saturday to Tuesday time frame. A surface low deepening over the Plains through the day Saturday will strengthen southwesterly downslope flow off the southern Rockies. Areas of elevated to critical conditions seem probable for northeastern NM into adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles Saturday afternoon. A higher amplitude upper wave moving into the Four Corners Tuesday shows a stronger, more persistent wind signal in ensemble guidance with decent probabilities for sustained winds near critical thresholds across the region. Although fuels are only modestly dry at the moment, dry and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across much of the southern Plains. This will help cure fuels during the D4-D7 period and increase the susceptibility to fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/20/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT