Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sat, Oct 23, 2021 - Sun, Oct 24, 2021 | D6 | Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - Wed, Oct 27, 2021 |
| D4 | Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - Mon, Oct 25, 2021 | D7 | Wed, Oct 27, 2021 - Thu, Oct 28, 2021 |
| D5 | Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - Tue, Oct 26, 2021 | D8 | Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - Fri, Oct 29, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 212037 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An increase in fire weather potential remains expected for the southern High Plains beginning this weekend and persisting through mid-week. Deepening surface lows associated with a pair of upper-level waves will strengthen downslope winds off the southern Rockies. This overall synoptic pattern compares well to analogs for the southern High Plains, and should coincide with a period of unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions that will help fuels dry. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a combination of weak surface flow and precipitation chances will reduce additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Saturday through D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... A lee trough is expected to deepen through D3/Saturday across the central High Plains. Ensemble guidance continues to depict reasonable probabilities for a swath of 15-20 mph westerly winds across eastern NM into adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles. Warm temperatures combined with downslope effects should yield RH reductions between 15-25%, though the coverage of sub-20% RH remains uncertain. Elevated conditions may evolve again on Sunday afternoon as the low shifts east, but confidence in the potential for critical conditions remains too low for highlights. Elevated to critical conditions are possible again on both D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday afternoons as a second surface low deepens over the central High Plains. Recent deterministic and ensemble solutions have trended towards drier/windier conditions for Monday. While the fire weather potential is acknowledged, run-to-run consistency in this trend has been poor and precludes highlights at this time. Conversely, the signal for critical conditions on Tuesday afternoon has persisted, though the exact coverage of such conditions will likely be determined by the placement of the low and southward progression of a southward-surging cold front Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 10/21/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT