Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - Mon, Oct 25, 2021 | D6 | Wed, Oct 27, 2021 - Thu, Oct 28, 2021 |
| D4 | Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - Tue, Oct 26, 2021 | D7 | Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - Fri, Oct 29, 2021 |
| D5 | Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - Wed, Oct 27, 2021 | D8 | Fri, Oct 29, 2021 - Sat, Oct 30, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 222030 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Multiple days of elevated to potentially critical conditions are possible across the High Plains next week, as one rather strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface low tracks eastward on D3/Sunday, and a larger/stronger system moves across the Plains D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Persistent dry/breezy conditions will likely result in some curing of fuels across the southern High Plains through the period. ...D3/Sunday... Elevated wind/RH conditions will be possible behind the dryline on Sunday from east-central NM into the TX South Plains, with most guidance suggesting an east/west oriented corridor of somewhat stronger surface winds coincident with minimum RH below 20%. However, guidance varies regarding the placement of the stronger winds, fuels are only marginally receptive, and potential for critical conditions appears low, so no 40% areas have been included. ...D5/Tuesday... A cyclone is expected to deepen on D5/Tuesday somewhere across the central High Plains, as a Pacific cold front/dryline moves eastward across the southern Rockies and High Plains. Critical conditions will be possible west of the dryline, though a considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the timing and eastward extent of the dryline progression during the afternoon. A 40% probability area has been included from southeast CO into the southern High Plains, with some portion of that area likely to see critical wind/RH conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...D6/Wednesday - D7/Thursday... Elevated to potentially critical conditions appear possible on Wednesday and Thursday across parts of the central and southern High Plains, within a dry and breezy post-frontal regime. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for overlap of critical conditions and receptive fuels, however, so no probabilities have been included at this time. ..Dean.. 10/22/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT