Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 23, 2021

Updated: Sat Oct 23 21:29:02 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232125

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0425 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

   Dry and breezy conditions are expected much of next week across
   portions of the central/southern High Plains, as a deep
   mid/upper-level trough moves across the western/central CONUS.
   Several days of elevated to potentially critical conditions are
   likely, though predictability remains somewhat low regarding the
   timing and location of the trough and associated surface features.
   Continued drying of finer fuels will likely occur in areas where
   rainfall does not occur.

   ...D3/Monday...
   As a cyclone deepens across the northern High Plains, surface winds
   will become southerly and increase somewhat across parts of the
   central/southern High Plains, with initially limited moisture
   return. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of surface
   flow and magnitude of RH reductions, but elevated conditions will be
   possible, with guidance currently suggesting the greatest risk from
   eastern NM into far southeast CO.  

   ...D4/Tuesday...
   Critical conditions will be possible within a post-dryline regime
   from the southern High Plains into southeast NM on Tuesday, as
   strong low/midlevel flow overspreads the region. Model spread
   remains rather large regarding the position of the dryline on
   Tuesday afternoon. Critical wind/RH is likely within a north-south
   corridor west of the dryline, though increasing cold advection and
   slight RH recovery behind a trailing cold front may limit the
   westward extent of the threat. Given the uncertainty regarding the
   position of the most favorable corridor, probabilities have been
   kept at 40% for this outlook. 

   ...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday...
   Elevated to potentially critical conditions will be possible within
   a post-frontal regime across portions of the central/southern High
   Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned timing
   differences among guidance regarding the mid/upper-level trough and
   cold front are still resulting in substantial uncertainty regarding
   the corridor of any greater threat, though critical conditions are
   certainly possible over areas where several days of finer-fuel
   drying have occurred. A 40% probability area has been added for
   Wednesday, and probabilities may eventually be needed for Thursday
   as well. 

   ...D7/Friday - D8/Saturday...
   Most extended guidance depicts another mid/upper-level trough
   impacting portions of the High Plains next weekend, though
   considerable differences remain regarding the details, including the
   strength of any surface low that develops in response to this
   trough, which will affect the magnitude of the fire-weather threat.

   ..Dean.. 10/23/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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