Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Wed, Oct 27, 2021 - Thu, Oct 28, 2021 | D6 | Sat, Oct 30, 2021 - Sun, Oct 31, 2021 |
| D4 | Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - Fri, Oct 29, 2021 | D7 | Sun, Oct 31, 2021 - Mon, Nov 01, 2021 |
| D5 | Fri, Oct 29, 2021 - Sat, Oct 30, 2021 | D8 | Mon, Nov 01, 2021 - Tue, Nov 02, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 252201 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z At the start of the extended forecast period, a strong trough will move east out of the Rockies and onto the southern Plains, as strong mid-level northerly winds develop behind it. High pressure will develop off the West Coast as zonal flow continues across much of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move with the upper trough, sweeping through the Plains, bringing a cooler and drier airmass into the weekend. Dry post frontal conditions along with drier than average fuels will support elevated to critical fire weather potential across portions of the southern Plains and far south Texas. ...Southern High Plains... In the wake of a strong cold front moving through the southern Plains late Day2/Tuesday, strong northwesterly low-level winds are forecast to develop across portions of west Texas early Day3/Wednesday. Enhanced by mixing from a 50-60 kt mid-level jet along the backside of the departing trough, model sounding show boundary-layer max wind gusts of 30-40 mph across portions of the Texas Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The dry continental trajectories aided by downslope warming will also favor low diurnal RH values of 10-20%. With expected meteorological conditions and fuels supportive of fire spread, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of southwest Texas. A 70% probability of critical area was added to southwestern Texas and the big Bend region for expected critical fire weather conditions. Strong surface winds will linger into Day4/Thursday as surface high pressure build across the Rockies and central Plains. Mid-level flow will remain strong supporting deep mixing despite cooler surface temperatures. Sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph from the northwest again appear likely. Increasing low-level cold advection may limit the influence of diurnal heating on minimum surface RH during the afternoon. However, a few hours of RH below 20% do still appear plausible despite lower confidence. Given the potential for strong winds and relatively dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will remain possible. Winds should decrease across the southern Plains Day5/Friday as the main trough and mid-level jet are replaced by a ridge of high pressure over the Southwest. However, lingering strong surface winds of 15-20 mph and surface RH below 20% may support localized elevated fire weather conditions where fuels remain driest. ...Central Plains... Dry downslope flow conditions are forecast to develop early Day3/Wednesday as the strong upper trough and associated cold front move to the south and east. High pressure over the Great Basin and interior Rockies will support increasingly strong west/northwesterly flow along with dry surface conditions. The greatest overlap of surface RH below 20% and winds greater than 20 mph will likely be Day3/Wednesday, ahead of a surge of cooler air behind the front. While fuels remain somewhat receptive to fire spread, increasing cold advection suggests higher humidity recoveries overnight may begin to limit fire weather potential late Day3/Wednesday into Day4/Thursday. While confidence is lower, 40% probability of critical areas will be maintained across portions of western Kansas and eastern Colorado for Day3/4 Wednesday/Thursday. The fire weather threat should end heading into the weekend, as increasing high pressure limits the potential for dry/windy surface conditions across the central Plains. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT