Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - Fri, Oct 29, 2021 | D6 | Sun, Oct 31, 2021 - Mon, Nov 01, 2021 |
| D4 | Fri, Oct 29, 2021 - Sat, Oct 30, 2021 | D7 | Mon, Nov 01, 2021 - Tue, Nov 02, 2021 |
| D5 | Sat, Oct 30, 2021 - Sun, Oct 31, 2021 | D8 | Tue, Nov 02, 2021 - Wed, Nov 03, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 261957 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A highly amplified mid-level trough positioned over the central CONUS will shift east and develop into a closed upper-level low by D4/Fri and D5/Sat. A predominantly zonal flow pattern should take effect thereafter across the western/central CONUS, with perhaps a ridge building into the West by the end of the forecast period. At the surface, a cold front will continue to advance eastward across the southeast by the weekend, with cooler and drier conditions prevailing across the Western/Central CONUS. ...D3/Thurs: Southern High Plains... The closed upper-level low to the East will allow a strong mid-level jet streak to be situated over the region on D3/Thurs, resulting in enhanced northerly mid-level flow. Despite cooler conditions behind the cold front, the residual dry airmass, characterized by dew point temperatures in the 20s F, combined with diurnal heating/mixing should be enough to foster RH values into at least the low 20s during the afternoon, and likely below 15% in some areas. Given the flow regime aloft, diurnally driven momentum transfer will result in sustained northwesterly winds of 25-30 mph at the surface, with gusts exceeding 45-50 mph. Fine fuels should remain receptive to large-fire spread, particularly in areas that remain west of the dry line on D1/Tues. An area delineating 70% probabilities of critical fire-weather conditions has been introduced for far western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas panhandle into portions of northwest Texas. This appears to be the mostly likely area where RH values will fall below 15% during the afternoon. Otherwise, the 40% probabilities have been expanded slightly east and southeast, where strong winds will likely compensate for higher RH values. Thereafter, fire-weather concerns remain low. Perhaps localized elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Southern Plains on D4/Fri. However, surface winds are projected to remain below critical thresholds in most areas at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT