Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Tue, Nov 02, 2021 - Wed, Nov 03, 2021 | D6 | Fri, Nov 05, 2021 - Sat, Nov 06, 2021 |
| D4 | Wed, Nov 03, 2021 - Thu, Nov 04, 2021 | D7 | Sat, Nov 06, 2021 - Sun, Nov 07, 2021 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 04, 2021 - Fri, Nov 05, 2021 | D8 | Sun, Nov 07, 2021 - Mon, Nov 08, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 312030 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z The synoptic pattern from Day 3 (Tuesday) through Day 5 (Thursday) is forecast to remain generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns across the CONUS. The pattern is characterized by a relatively stationary upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS with surface high pressure dominating much of the central and eastern CONUS. As a result, conditions will be relatively cool and moist across much of the CONUS, except for portions of the Southwest, where winds are forecast to remain light. Short-wave ridging is forecast to develop over the West by Day 4 (Wednesday) ahead of a potent shortwave trough that is forecast to move onto the West Coast on Day 5 (Thursday). After this forecast lead time, model and ensemble solutions diverge, indicating low predictability of this shortwave trough. Regardless of the exact evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves eastward across the CONUS beyond Day 5 (Thursday), fire weather concerns will likely increase on Day 6 (Friday), especially across the southern/central High Plains, but there is too much uncertainty in the pattern evolution to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Jirak.. 10/31/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT