Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
| ||||||||
| D3 | Sun, Nov 07, 2021 - Mon, Nov 08, 2021 | D6 | Wed, Nov 10, 2021 - Thu, Nov 11, 2021 |
| D4 | Mon, Nov 08, 2021 - Tue, Nov 09, 2021 | D7 | Thu, Nov 11, 2021 - Fri, Nov 12, 2021 |
| D5 | Tue, Nov 09, 2021 - Wed, Nov 10, 2021 | D8 | Fri, Nov 12, 2021 - Sat, Nov 13, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 051916 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A broad mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the western CONUS Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday and undergo periodic amplification as a series of short-wave troughs move through its larger-scale flow. Mid-level ridging is forecast to gradually build across the eastern Pacific Ocean Day 6/Wednesday and then onshore across the western CONUS Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. ...Southern High Plains: Day 3/Sunday through Day 6/Wednesday... Elevated (to locally critical) meteorological fire weather conditions are likely Day 3/Sunday afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico into western portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle as breezy surface winds overlap near critical minimum surface RH values. Fuels across this area remain only modestly receptive to large-scale fire spread, which precludes introducing 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions. Nevertheless, several hours of at least locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely. While fuels are more receptive to fire spread across portions of east-central into southeastern Colorado, winds are also forecast to be weaker there, which should keep fire weather concerns localized. Despite weaker surface winds Day 5/Monday and Day 6/Tuesday, spotty elevated fire weather conditions may still develop for a few hours during the afternoon/evening as RH values briefly fall to near critical values. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions may return Day 6/Wednesday across southern portions of the southern High Plains as enhanced mid-level flow near the base of the aforementioned mid-level trough overspreads the area. However, low confidence in Critical conditions coupled with uncertainty regarding fuel status precludes introducing 40% probabilities for Critical conditions at this time. ..Elliott.. 11/05/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT