Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Mon, Nov 08, 2021 - Tue, Nov 09, 2021 | D6 | Thu, Nov 11, 2021 - Fri, Nov 12, 2021 |
| D4 | Tue, Nov 09, 2021 - Wed, Nov 10, 2021 | D7 | Fri, Nov 12, 2021 - Sat, Nov 13, 2021 |
| D5 | Wed, Nov 10, 2021 - Thu, Nov 11, 2021 | D8 | Sat, Nov 13, 2021 - Sun, Nov 14, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 061929 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow is forecast across much of the western CONUS Day 3/Monday into Day 5/Wednesday while several mid-level shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale flow. The most significant of these troughs is expected to move from the Rockies and into the Plains Day 5/Wednesday and then gradually shift toward the Great Lakes region through Day 8/Saturday. As this occurs, an upstream mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the western CONUS. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday and Day 5/Wednesday... While elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are probable Day 3/Monday across portions of south-central Colorado and eastern New Mexico, fuel receptiveness across parts of this area remain sub-optimal to large-scale fire spread. One exception may be over the San Luis Valley of Colorado, where a more favorable overlap of wind/rh and fuel receptiveness may foster at least locally elevated fire weather conditions. While some fire weather concerns could return Day 5/Wednesday across southern portions of the southern Plains, as the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area, uncertainty regarding wind/rh and fuel receptiveness is too large to introduce 40% probabilities for critical fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 11/06/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT