Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 9, 2021

Updated: Tue Nov 9 21:03:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092059

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   A large upper-level trough positioned over the central CONUS will
   shift eastward from D3/Thursday through D5/Saturday. Meanwhile,
   strong northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific
   Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Thereafter, another upper-level
   trough will develop over the central CONUS by D6/Sunday while an
   upper-level ridge builds into the West. At the surface, high
   pressure is forecast to build into the Great Basin region and
   persist through D4/Friday. This will result in episodic periods
   offshore flow across portions of southern California. Otherwise,
   periodic lee cyclogenesis and frontal passages will continue to
   occur across portions of the southern High Plains.

   ...D3/Thursday - D4/Friday: Southern California...
   Relatively strong offshore flow will be ongoing Thursday morning,
   which should relax during the afternoon and restrengthen Friday
   morning. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts near 35-40 mph,
   are possible, particularly in terrain-favored regions along the
   coastal mountain slopes and below passes/canyons. The strongest
   winds should occur Thursday morning. RH values during the morning
   hours will approach the mid to upper 20s, while daytime values fall
   into the teens, with slightly lower RH values possible Friday
   morning. Aside from a limited duration of overlapping wind/RH combos
   to support an elevated fire-weather threat, the main limiting factor
   is fuels. Fuel guidance suggest receptivity will increase, but
   several more hours of drying are needed to substantiate a more
   widespread fire-weather threat. Therefore, no probabilities have
   been introduced at this time.

   ...D5/Saturday: Southern High Plains...
   Westerly surface winds ahead of a cold front, combined with a
   dry/well-mixed boundary layer and day-time heating suggests
   potential for elevated fire-weather conditions, mainly across
   portions of northeast New Mexico and vicinity, although coverage is
   a bit uncertain. Fuels in this region are currently marginally
   receptive, but a few days of dry conditions may allow fuels to cure.
   Given these uncertainties, no probabilities have been introduced and
   the region will be monitored for potential highlights in future
   outlooks.

   ..Karstens.. 11/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT