Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Updated: Sat Nov 13 20:48:02 UTC 2021

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 13, 2021

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Nov 15, 2021 - Tue, Nov 16, 2021 D6Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021
D4Tue, Nov 16, 2021 - Wed, Nov 17, 2021 D7Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021
D5Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021 D8Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132044

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Trough across the eastern portions of the U.S. will begin to move
   offshore beginning early next week. At the same time, ridging in the
   West will begin to shift eastward into the Plains while a trough
   moves over the western coast. The upper trough will eventually move
   into the northern/central Plains by the middle of the week with some
   flow enhancement reaching the southern High Plains. Thereafter,
   models currently forecast a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern aloft
   where another trough may impact the southern Plains by late next
   week into the weekend. At the surface, a cyclone in the vicinity of
   the combined Panhandles is expected on Tuesday along with the
   initial trough. A cold front will push through the southern Plains
   and into the northern Gulf by Thursday. With a similar upper-level
   pattern expected late in the week, another front may move through
   the southern Plains during that time frame as well.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Fuels continue to remain only marginally dry across much of the
   region. Warm and dry conditions over the weekend into Monday will
   help to dry fine fuels. On Tuesday, confidence remains moderate that
   critical meteorological conditions will exist. With the approach of
   the upper trough and a deepening cyclone through the afternoon and
   early evening, strong winds from the surface to 700 mb will be
   possible. With downsloping winds that could approach 20-25 mph, RH
   is forecast to fall to 10-15% over a broad area. Given these
   conditions, probabilities have been introduced as some potential for
   larger grass fires will exist.

   With the approach of another shortwave later in the week, a similar
   set up to Tuesday is possible. However, cooler temperatures behind
   the cold front keep confidence in broadly low RH minimal.

   ..Wendt.. 11/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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