Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Tue, Nov 16, 2021 - Wed, Nov 17, 2021 | D6 | Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021 |
| D4 | Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021 | D7 | Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021 | D8 | Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 142054 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level trough will move through the northern/central Rockies early next week. It is forecast to amplify as it moves east. A low-amplitude ridge will set up across the West before upper-level flow becomes quasi-zonal with another trough impacting parts of the intermountain region by late next week. At the surface, winds will turn southerly/southwesterly across the southern/central Plains with the approach of the initial trough and the deepening of a lee cyclone. A cold front will then move through the region around midweek. A similar surface pattern could develop by late next week into the weekend, though model solutions begin to differ at that time frame. ...Central/Southern Plains... Confidence in meteorologically critical conditions remains moderate to high for Tuesday. Guidance continues to show potential for strong surface winds of 20-25 mph with RH of 10-15% across parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. With ERCs showing an increase over the past few days, there is enough confidence that fine fuels will support a risk for large fires to include 70% critical probabilities. The remaining questions will be how far east and north dry and windy conditions will exists which will depend on the surface low's position in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. On Wednesday, a cold front will move through the southern Plains. In its wake, strong northerly winds are probable with potentially some areas of reduced RH. Confidence in broadly low RH remains low due to the cooler temperatures expected. Locally elevated conditions may occur in the combined Panhandles and western Oklahoma. The next trough to impact the central/southern Rockies on Friday will help to develop another lee trough/cyclone in a similar location to Tuesday. Given the maritime source region of the airmass and cooler temperatures, it is uncertain how low RH will fall during the afternoon. An increase in fire weather concerns may occur in parts of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 11/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT