Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
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| D3 | Wed, Nov 17, 2021 - Thu, Nov 18, 2021 | D6 | Sat, Nov 20, 2021 - Sun, Nov 21, 2021 |
| D4 | Thu, Nov 18, 2021 - Fri, Nov 19, 2021 | D7 | Sun, Nov 21, 2021 - Mon, Nov 22, 2021 |
| D5 | Fri, Nov 19, 2021 - Sat, Nov 20, 2021 | D8 | Mon, Nov 22, 2021 - Tue, Nov 23, 2021 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 152117 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper-level trough will continue to the east and amplify with time during the middle to latter portions of this week. A relatively low-amplitude ridge will take its place in the West. Upper-level flow will become almost quasi-zonal by the weekend with another ridge forecast to build across the western coast by the start of next week. An upper low may even develop off the southern California coast as well, but predictability with this feature is low. At the surface, A cold front will move through the southern Plains. As the surface high shifts east, southerly, but dry, winds will return to the southern Plains with lee troughing likely to occur as flow aloft becomes more zonal with embedded shortwave troughs within it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Strong northerly winds are expected behind the cold front within a broad area of the Plains on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and possible mid-level clouds are still expected to elevate RH above critical thresholds. However, areas of RH near 20-25% may still occur locally. Fuels will be most receptive across parts of the combined Panhandles as well as western Oklahoma. Confidence in critical fire weather is low. Flow will turn southerly through Friday across the southern/central High Plains. An approaching shortwave may promote weak lee cyclone development. Depending on how warm it becomes, areas of around 20% RH are possible in the region. Since uncertainty in the duration of low RH is high, critical fire weather potential remains low. ...Southern California... As the upper-level ridge pushes into the West Coast, a surface high pressure system will strengthen in the northern Rockies and Great Basin on Sunday into Monday. Some offshore flow can be expected in southern California as a result. The strength of the offshore winds is still uncertain and the potential influence of an offshore closed low, likely in the way of cloud cover, both reduce confidence in critical fire weather risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT