Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 16, 2021

Updated: Tue Nov 16 20:52:03 UTC 2021

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks: Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for - Critical Area - 40% (blue) - Marginal Area - 10% (brown) Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for - Critical Area - 70% (red) - Marginal Area - 40% (orange)

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area No Risk Areas Forecast

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162048

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   An upper-level trough will move through the northeast by late this
   week with quasi-zonal flow developing across much of the western
   two-thirds of the U.S. Upper-level flow will eventually become more
   amplified with a trough in the East and a ridge within the West by
   early next week. A closed/cutoff feature may develop off the
   southern California coast as flow begins to amplify, but
   predictability remains low regarding that feature. At the surface,
   the Plains will initially be under the influence of high pressure
   system. Weak cold fronts are possible through the central/southern
   Plains this weekend and again early next week. High pressure behind
   the weekend front will set up offshore pressure gradients in
   southern California.

   ...Southern California...
   With upper-level ridging building into the West towards the end of
   the week, surface high pressure is expected to strengthen in the
   northern Rockies and Great Basin. Offshore flow is probable across
   southern California, peaking from Sunday into Monday. The main
   source of uncertainty continues to be evolution of the digging
   Plains upper trough. Guidance continues to show the base of this
   feature becoming a closed/cutoff low off the southern California
   coast. The ECMWF is slower to do this than the GFS. Mid/upper-level
   clouds may impact surface heating and RH, depending on the location
   of the upper low. With the slower ECMWF solution, it is also
   possible that upper-level winds could better align with offshore
   gradients for at least a short period. Given these predictability
   issues, no highlights will be added. However, some increase in fire
   weather concerns is indicated by current fuels status and offshore
   pressure gradient magnitudes out of guidance.

   ...Central/Southern High Plains...
   Quasi-zonal flow aloft will lead to periodic lee trough
   strengthening during the extended period. As shortwave trough
   progress through the upper-level flow, stronger troughing may occur
   ahead of frontal passages both this weekend and possibly early/mid
   next week. Current guidance suggests the strongest cyclone would
   occur next week. While locally increased fire weather concerns are
   possible, confidence in sustained critical conditions is too low for
   any areas to be highlighted.

   ..Wendt.. 11/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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